To: Spytrdr who wrote (8182 ) 8/24/1999 10:32:00 PM From: ecommerceman Respond to of 13953
From Internet Stock Report....... 3. eBROKERS ARENíT BROKEN By Mike Ogburn "A summertime ìCatch-22î has put the heat on the eBrokers. Online brokers generate revenues as individuals invest over the Internet, and online investors tend to trade stock in Internet companies. When the entire Internet sector sells-off ñ as it has since late Spring ñ onlineinvesting tends to slow. As online investing flattens, so do eBroker revenues, causing analysts to issue warnings that perpetuate further sell-offs. This scenario is currently building a ìwall of worryî for the E-Trades (NASDAQ: EGRPP), AmeriTrades (NASDAQ: AMTD), National Discount Brokers (NYSE: NDB) and Charles Schwabs (NYSE: SCH) of the world. These companiesare already trading well off their 52-week highs, and now theyíve got analysts stoking the doomsday fires. On Wednesday, for instance, Scott Appleby at BancBoston Robertson Stephens lowered his earnings estimates for Ameritrade and market-maker to the eBrokers, Knight/Trimark (NASDAQ: NITE). He cited general market weakness, interest rate uncertainty and market-volume weakness among the reasons for concern. Funny, just two weeks ago ñ in the depths of the Net correction ñ Appleby called NITE a compelling buy. And, in this latest report predicting ìflat to five percent declineî growth in Q3 1999, there is no earnings revision or even mention of E*Trade, a company that BBRS helped underwrite and makes a market in. In fairness, Appleby isnít alone in voicing doubts about the next quarter. Analysts from U.S. Bancorp and Lehman Brothers had no qualms about cutting E*Trade estimates on that same day, and both blamed flat revenue growth on sluggish trading as the prime cause. On Thursday, a CNBC guest went so far as to surmise that online investors would venture back to full-service brokers as they lost money over the Net. Of course, other analysts ñ such as Deutsche Banc Alex Brownís Jim Marks ñ believe not only that the summer slowdown may be a myth, but that the sector is only getting stronger. Near term, September earnings reports will show which experts were correct. Long term, those sowing seeds of doubt are simply creating buying opportunities. Why? Because the online brokerage business is growing as fast as the eBrokers can manage it. First, the customer base is expanding wildly. Approximately 70 million baby boomers are hit ting the ìinvestment age,î and more than a few will be taking their best shot online. A recent survey by Gomez Advisors and Harris Interactive predicts that the number of online investors could increase by two-thirds in the next six months, from 5.1 million to 8.6 million. Second, summer slowdown or not, the eBrokersí overall trading volume is exploding. One fifth of NASDAQ trades originate online, and that number is expected to grow with the increase in customer base and the increase in trading hours. Extended hours are already here courtesy of Datek ñ and E*Trade, Wit Capital (NASDAQ: WITC), Discover online and JBOxford (NASDAQ: JBOH) will soon keep the action going even longer into the evening. In addition, IPO-mania continues to stimulate heightened trading activity. The ìbuy and holdî strategy is nice, but every online investor wants in on the next Net IPO. eBrokers like Wit Capital, E*Trade and Charles Schwab capitalize by offering limited access to some IPOs. Youíve got to open an account to have even the slightest chance. Looking forward, who is better positioned to profit from the collision of two new paradigms: the investment frenzy and the Internet. Seemingly lost amidst the summer swelter is the fact that the big three ñ Charles Schwab, E*Trade and AmeriTrade ñ posted surprisingly strong numbers last quarter in new accounts, trading volume, revenues and customer acquisition costs. While competition looms from the likes of traditional brokerages moving online (i.e. Merrill Lynch) as well as ECNs, overall business is good. When the market finally gets its legs, look for the eBrokers to be one of the first groups off and running."