To: pat mudge who wrote (12954 ) 8/25/1999 8:26:00 AM From: gbh Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18016
Pat, great job with the synopsis of the CC. I was glad to see both healthy revenue and earnings numbers relative to expectations. However, I'm very concerned about two items on the balance sheet often overlooked by individual investors, but never overlooked by analysts. AR and Inventory. AR first. Why did AR grow at faster rate than revenue? And why is AR almost 1.2x revenue, vs. say, CSCO with AR of about .3x revenue? Are we winning business based on terms? I get a picture of 36170's sitting in warehouses, still boxed up, collecting dust. I would love to know why NN has such a loose revenue recognition policy. It basically says, we are giving customers an average of over 90 days to pay bills, when CSCO gives customers just 30. Why? Inventory. It clearly obvious the the supply problems were solved in the short-term, by simply building inventory. From the CC, the inventory was not just finished goods either. Someone mentioned they were now inventory'ing key components also. Well I can tell you, companies always inventory some level of components, but to specifically mention this, I get the feeling that we bought more than usual to avoid any supply side issues. Again, just compare the NN inventory levels with CSCO, and the percentage difference is VERY noticeable. So what does all this translate to? RISK. I think its things like this that will keep the PE multiple from expanding in the near term. We need to resolve this AR thing, and really solve the supply problems before that PE can expand. I think the current 30 forward PE may be justified, and perhaps a tad high. What's your take? Thanks. gary