To: edamo who wrote (140436 ) 8/25/1999 8:25:00 AM From: jttmab Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
ed, You make a reasonable case. I'll make an assumption or two about your logic, so feel free to correct me if I'm in error. You've picked 6 months as the view. I'm assuming that you haven't selected 6 months because it's least favorable to DELL within the group but because you hold that a six month view is a "good" indicator of the perception of the market place. Also, if I were to compare, say, GTW vs. DELL in the six month view the difference is clear. Now does this imply something predictive in the next six months. Over the next six months will GTW continue to outperform DELL? Also, the market is somewhat more complicated than the perception of market growth. I can agree for sake of argument that the market is always right, but I would ask is the market always accurate? If I were to move the 6 month view to a prior 6-month window ending with DELL's high of 55 and compared that against the group I would come up with a different conclusion about perception and future growth. Let's ignore why the "perception" changed, I think we would all be in agreement on that point. But the point I would like to make is that, I think, nearly all the longs would agree that in Feb, DELL was overvalued. The momentum of the perception carried DELL well beyond what it should have been. If that is true how does the market accommodate that situation over the following 6 months? Back to the perception of DELL, which I wanted to ignore above. It most likely changed because of growth rates that did not exceed analyst expectation in two consecutive quarters and not the absence of dog and pony shows. So would it be reasonable to expect share value to languish until growth rates in two or more quarters re-established a new perception? One last question. Generally, what are you looking for to be able to raise your hand and declare the trend has changed? Best Regards, Jim