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Technology Stocks : Red Hat Software Inc. (Nasdq-RHAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ynot who wrote (802)	8/24/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: Shadowed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1794

RHAT is a turd, goes to low $20's, for many reasons VC greed RHAT greed no unique billable service no competitive service edge no unique business plan ynot is a turd, goes to low blows, for many reasons ynot greed ynot SHORT no unique information no investment edge no clue Give it a rest ynot.

To: ynot who wrote (802)	8/25/1999 1:57:00 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1794

RHAT is a turd, goes to low $20's, for many reasons I don't think anyone is trying to justify the market cap, just that this is not a turd. Every long should know that to value this compoany like a consulting firm (Keane or EDS), it should have a market cap of 100 to 120 million. This considering their growth and cash. Heck, in this market, give them 10 times sales and a 200 market cap. So at 66 million shares this stock is worth a buck fifty to a generous $2.50. Or you could also bet that this has the makings of a short squeeze because most of the shorters are clueless about software. Most are shorting because it is overvalued on their perception. Most are large MSFT holders and think Windows 2000 will be out any day now. Bug free, too! They also think Intel really likes Microsoft and wants to be good buddies with them. Those Intel engineers just love working with Windows. Most shorters keep harping on the free Linux stuff like us idiot longs don't know. Ynot is the same idiot who thinks there is no way Linux will overtake Window's NT. He also thinks Linux is "just another version of Unix". He thinks Linux is just some fad. My analysis of ynot is of a typical Dilbert point hair. Probably started out on mainframes when Billy was stealing his first program. Went into management in the 80's and invested in MSFT in 92-93. He could retire now but that would mean spending all day with the wife. Spends all day reading SI, doing charts and attending meetings. MH

To: ynot who wrote (802)	8/25/1999 2:23:00 AM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1794

ynot - You are so wrong!!! gg At low 20's, say $22.50, RHAT will have a market cap of about $1.5 billion. On revenues of $10 million last year, maybe $20 million this year if they do well. Let's say they double revenues every year. Say they make 20% EBIT margin. At what point in time will a market cap of $1.5 billion be justified at, say, a 40 times PE, say a 25 times EBIT multiple. Answer, 6 years out when they make $64 million EBIT on $320 million of revenues. Now, discount that back for time value of money (8%). Makes it worth about maybe $15 per share. Now discount that for the risks involved in getting from here to $64 million EBIT. Want to give em a 50% shot? Say $8 per share. Therefore, RHAT is worth $8 per share if they have a 50% chance of growing 100% p.a. for 6 years and achieve 20% EBIT margins. Doing the same exercise at $70 per share, you got to discount time and risk, so it's like a $280 price if 10 years. For that you gotta grow 100% for 10 years. I could poke about 43 holes in these arguments too, but the picture is pretty clear to me. Of course, it's equally clear to me on many internet stocks, and that didn't save me from losing my shirt on AMZN. La plus ca change....................