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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (5380)	8/25/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Bruce, You have lots of credibility. Not to worry. If the smallest mistake I make this year is as small as yours about the share buy-back, well, never mind because I know it won't be that small. I would have listened to the interview instead of reading the transcript were it not for the fact that I still haven't installed any software to do that, despite Cha2's best efforts to get my butt in gear. Regarding the 68% market share, I have now read Siebel's statement about that more carefully. Let's take a closer look at what the transcript says he said. The market for sales marketing is a $227 billion market in 1999. ... Of all the public companies in this space, Siebel Systems represents 68% market share and licensed revenue Let's make a lot of generous assumptions. We'll assume Siebel has a blow-out year and does $700 million. Let's also assume all of it is for license revenue, though we know that's not possible. Let's also assume all of the revenue is allocated to sales/marketing, which we know also isn't possible because it leaves out customer service. To continue, $700 million is 68% of $1 billion. If $1 billion is being done with publicly traded companies and the total market is $227 billion, then $226 billion of it is being done with privately held companies. Something isn't adding up. --Mike Buckley