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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23766)	8/25/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Matt ; The gain in the NDX and Nadaq due to MSFT yesterday were like you said , BUT that was more a function of the fact that MSFT has such a large market cap. My DVI actually filtered a lot of that out as it don't work weighted on market cap; but by dollars traded while msft had a lot of dollars traded yesterday and it's gain was the most even in my DVI it was not so much if had my DVI been weighted by market cap. -------------- Best way to understand this is to pick the most active and make one up, I'm not into trying to sell people on it, at least not yet. I mostly but it on line to verify and have a public record with a time stamped that I can't control that. No one has ever done an index like this before me at least not to my knowledge. I just want credit for it , and while it's in the public domain tahts for non commercial use. It works , but being it's a new way to look at market sentiment I can't say for sure exactly how good. I have not backtested it past Jan 99 yet; as tath will take a lot of doing and I stay fairly busy. Yesterdays volume was such that I have no record to match it so if you followed my post you saw that I said I wasn't sure what to make of it. I took a short position on the close but that's very iffy and short term & I may hedge it off fast this morning, it's not a suggestion for others to do it. Jim Ps MSFT traded $2.776B yesterday, a little over twice her normal 3 mo average but AOL traded $2.022 B just under her normal 3 mo average. I have two programs running one is using 3 mo dollar traded average for weight and the other is using 7day dollar average..this filters out knee jerks , ( weight wise ) and I don't use maverick one or two day stocks that have high volume they must at least hold high volume for over a week before I consider them, however there are a lot of variations one can use , my claim to fame is basically the weighting via dollar volume traded what spin others may put on it is up to them, it's still a work in progress so I'm not interested in nailing down an exact window of the best time ( days or hours ) to use for the weighting and I don't think taht can be nailed down to where it won't change from time to time. So there is no absolute in my mind, ( no where in the market ) but this is a quantum leap forward over any other TA I've used or seen. ( mostly because the internals are built into it,) and I can see percentage changes in volume via the most active before they show up in a broad index. Several days CNBC said volume was "low" I saw the build up of volume in the most active and was in front of the curve. Jim