To: David Wiggins who wrote (1889 ) 8/25/1999 11:45:00 AM From: Chuzzlewit Respond to of 3175
London calling The Vodafone/AirTouch merger may help speed wireless penetration in U.S. markets. By Blaise Zerega Red Herring magazine From the August 1999 issue In January San Francisco-based AirTouch Communications agreed to be acquired by the Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD), which is based in Newbury, England, near London. The $62 billion union of the world's two largest wireless carriers creates a company that will serve 23 million customers across 23 nations directly and a total of 60 million through international joint ventures. Red Herring visited Chris Gent, the CEO of the merged company, at the former AirTouch headquarters to hear his perspective on what it will take for the United States to catch up with the many countries in Europe and Asia where more than half the adult population has mobile phones. What are the differences between U.S. wireless usage, which is estimated at about 24 percent, and that of the United Kingdom? The United Kingdom has just overtaken the United States in terms of penetration, but the difference is that the U.K. is now moving at 1 percent penetration per month, while the States is traveling at around a half percent per month. The U.K. will increase its wireless penetration by at least 12 percent this year. Why is the U.S. now lagging behind? Several things have caused this to happen. There is a mess of standards in the United States, and quite confusing propositions are made to customers. You've got this business where, if you're a mobile customer, you pay for making calls and for receiving them. In the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, the caller pays. This "calling party pays" structure has certainly sped up penetration in those countries. It seems more fair. When the calling party pays, you're more open to receiving calls as well as making them, so you're more likely to keep your mobile phone turned on all the time. If you go down the streets of, say, London or Paris, people are walking and talking on their phones in a way that you just don't see in the States. But are the charges prohibitive there? No, the charges are not exorbitant because calls are distance independent. It doesn't matter if it's a call to Scotland or around the corner--there are no roaming charges between countries. Over here in the States, people don't want to pay high roaming charges, so they don't call. How important are prepaid calling plans to wireless adoption? If you're paying in advance for your service and you don't have to pay when somebody calls you, wireless becomes a more attractive option. About 80 to 90 percent of Vodafone's business in the U.K. is through prepay. Can prepay happen in the United States? Prepay is beginning to happen, and we expect to see an explosion. But I think it will take two or three years. AirTouch recently launched a major initiative that cuts the prepaid price per minute nearly in half. Worldwide, wireless voice is predicted to surpass wire-line voice. Will the same hold true for data? I would say that 70 or 80 percent of voice traffic will end up on mobile networks, but data is only just emerging. What is the role of the new 3G standard in speeding penetration of wireless voice and data in the United States? Already in the States there are trials that let you use 3G while remaining on your existing CDMA structure. The same thing is happening in Europe for GSM infrastructure. What matters is that users have a forward migration path and backward compatibility. How do U.S. wireless users benefit from having 3G adopted as the global standard for wireless networks? They could step off a plane from Boston or San Francisco into Paris, and their mobile phone would work. In Europe, where there is only the GSM standard, you see people getting off a plane and 15 seconds later making or receiving a call. You get a bit of that in the PCS world, but given that the United States has such a proliferation of standards, it's very important that CDMA be able to move forward, along with GSM, as part of the 3G standard. redherring.com