Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (66779)	8/25/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne, Just a thought in regard to your post on money powering stocks. When I look at this tech market, there are loads of issues that have done very little in the way of performance. The money is and has been flowing into a relatively small group of 'gorillas', and my guess is that there is enough of it around to keep powering it for some time to come. Hell, the owner of that 1 bedroom home in Saratoga (Gene Parrot's post on San Jose real estate) will probably load up on Intel when he/she sells the home for 700k+ and buys a home triple the size for 200k in Sacramento <ggg>. Regards, John

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (66779)	8/25/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne: Heres my 2c. The amount of money going into the US market has already slowed. The fact that the market has risen substantially yet more stocks are down than up seems to be testiment to the fact (at least to me) The market is focusing on a narrow set of winners mostly within the technology sector. The driver of liquidity in our market is the Japanese getting better returns on their savings and our credit expansion. Japan has no more room for liquidity expansion as their interest rate has been zero since last year. Our liquidity will decrease due to interest rate hike. The FED increased rates to turn the tide on the decline in the dollar ("inflation" is a convenient alibi). Higher rates will be required to keep the dollar from declining with our trade deficit as the rest of the world recovers. Consumption will slow and credit growth will slow. Japan will retain more capital as the dollar decreases in value and their US investments return less than investments at home. The market having lost its major capital infeeds will suffer a major liquidity issue and decline substantially. I hope this occurs sooner than later as I expect the consequences for the economy to be ugly. As far as timing, I dont expect this to occur Until after the new year. all this imo

To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (66779)	8/26/1999 2:05:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Wayne, I will pay you only a penny for your thoughts, not 2 cents. <g> >>The thing that will stop the bull market is that it takes progressively larger amounts of money being directed towards stocks in order for the market to continue to rise. << This is commonly known as the supporting trigger behind the Magner Economic Violence model. So far, it has been disproven. Stock market continues to climb even as U.S. dollars are repatriated in Japan. U.S. banks are lending like crazy, much faster than the GNP growth rate. You must show me the event that will stop this wild-ass lending...not merely tell me that one day it will stop...because Magner has been waiting for 3 years for it to stop! >>But if a disproportionate amount of it is being directed towards stocks, they will rise faster than the rate of growth of economic activity and our ability to produce real goods and services. << Where have you been during the past decade or two? The trend you speak of has continued for a long time without injury to the economy or our ability to compete. Look at the funds raised in IPOs and the resultant spending that those companies do to accelerate the economy. The post IPO price of these companies is merely 'prop-up the stock price' money without significance as these dollars are rotating away from the stocks of other small companies. >>And all the while there will be more and more people that recognize the excesses and start cashing in tickets.<< Oh, is like insider selling a sign? Gee, insiders were selling big time when the Dow and NAZ were at half the current levels.