To: David Wiggins who wrote (6838 ) 8/25/1999 7:01:00 PM From: Rocket Scientist Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987
Well, I think we can assume that everything isn't "rosy," but that's not necessarily cause for panic. Cause for panic would be inability to sell the service because it doesn't work or because the pricing/marketing is screwed up. Absence of information on both fronts is worrying but I'm prepared to give mgmt the benefit of the doubt for at least a couple more months. I think the Sept analysts meeting and October Telecom exhibit will provide the missing information. It seems likely that there are problems with handset production (at least in the GSM world) and getting GWs/GW Service providers on line. These are problems that can be solved with time, and I think G* has the time (money) to solve them (see below). So in a couple of weeks the investment gurus will form a judgement on the phones/marketing plans, followed by the telecom wonks in October. Shortly thereafter, real people in Argentina and maybe a few other select locales, will prove them right (or wrong) in those judgements, and G* will have to respond to the people that matter-end users. So, how much time (money) does G* have? My guess is its cash costs once service starts will be on order of 500M/year for SG&A, O&M and debt service. It will get some positive cash flow from resale of gateways and handsets, maybe about 150M$, and Loral will doubtless exercise its warrants, that's another 300M$. So it seems to me we're good for about a year, not taking account additional investments G* may make in GWs which were supposed to be capitalized by others, spare satellites and other more or less discretionary expenses, and ignoring sales receipts. Any better guesses out there?