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Strategies & Market Trends : BCRX: Target practice for shorts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: lizardK who wrote (54)8/26/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: Manly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 96
 
Noah.

I would watch this for a bit and if you short it - start with about 25% short and continue to add to your position. I'm playing MDCM right now and having a great time with it's run up. BCRX is being pumped so much that the gaps will be filled regardless of what long term investors say. Not saying that BCRX doesn't have potential but it's current valuation is too high. The analyst keeps raising her target which is great expecially if BCRX does hit 40+ for shorts to short more. They will not be the first out with this class of drug and first out to market typically is the market leader!

Glenn



To: lizardK who wrote (54)8/27/1999 3:04:00 AM
From: Wolff  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 96
 
do they even get royalties? I have to laugh at BRCX for a number of reasons. I'll ask just one question here right now:

Does BCRX even get a royalty (and how much) IF the influenza compound works in a Phase III and is provably better than competitors?

The only things I've read about the JNJ agreement refer to milestone payments (which are one-time payments for acheiving a certain goal), but nothing on roaylty rates (if there even are royalties). Can someone point me to a source where the royalty issue is disclosed?

I've been involved in a lot of biopharma deals, and when you license a compound prior to Phase III data (or even Phase II data), as BCRX has, the terms are not especially generous - usually royalties, if they exist, are low single digits.

So why are people getting excited about the Phase II data which is not even clinically relevant? Even IF the compound is licensed and sold, BCRX is likely to see very little financial benefit other than some one-time milestone payments.

Again, any pointers to a reference on the royalty rate would be appreciated.

posted by a stranged named post called by: biopharma_demigod