To: T Bowl who wrote (7009 ) 8/26/1999 9:31:00 AM From: Lee Respond to of 9256
OT: Technology Projections Found this amongst the rubble. Though some of you might enjoy it. ______ As we conduct our puny technology projections to enable flexibility, upgradability, etc in the face of events which may happen some 50 years in the future (end of 21 Class), I happened across (not on government time) this attempt at Technology Projection at:singularity.posthuman.com singularity.posthuman.com -------------------------------------------- As of 1999, computing power has doubled every two years, like clockwork, for the past fifty years. However, the computer you're using to read this Web page still has only one-billionth the power of a human brain. At present, the total contribution of computers to intelligence on this planet is basically nil. Supercomputers won't reach human-equivalent power until 2025 or so, although networks of computers may chop at least a decade off this time. However, once Artificial Intelligences (AIs) are powered and programmed to reach human equivalence, time starts doing strange things. Two years after human equivalence is reached, the speed of these AIs doubles. For them, one year of objective time equals two years of subjective time. And since these computers are human-equivalent, they will be capable of doing the research, figuring out how to speed up computing power. One year later, three years total, the AIs' power doubles again - now the AIs are operating at four times human speed. Six months later... three months later... Four years after computers reach human equivalence, computing power goes to infinity. That's the short version. Reality is more complicated and doesn't follow neat little steps, but it ends up at about the same place in less time. Once any race gains the ability to technologically increase the level of intelligence - either by enhancing existing intelligence, or by constructing entirely new minds - a fundamental change in the rules occurs, as basic as the rise to sentience. Technology enhances intelligence, but intelligence is the source of technology. Positive feedback explodes. Very rapidly, intelligences build intelligences who build intelligences which are so powerful as to be effectively unknowable. This event is known as a Singularity The life cycle of an average race goes like this: Life evolves. [In our case, this happened about 4,000,000,000 B.C.] Dim intelligence evolves, capable of making simple tools. [2,500,000 B.C.] You Are Here: The intelligent species becomes capable of formulating complex, abstract thoughts, and of designing complex tools, including tools to make tools. [50,000 B.C. - present] The technology and science of the intelligent species reaches the point where it can augment its own intelligence, build AIs, or some mix of the two. [2015 A.D.] The first-stage enhanced intelligences turn their minds to the task of designing even better intelligences, probably using "fast infrastructures" (such as nanotechnology <http://www.foresight.org <http://www.foresight.org> >) to create the necessary computing power. The second-stage enhanced intelligences create "superintelligences". Positive feedback explodes, with intelligence creating technology enhancing intelligence. The superintelligences are operating on subjective-time processing speedups of years per human second. Singularity. The race reaches the ultimate limits of physical and mental power. [2015 A.D.] --------------------------------------- SO: be sure to plan accordingly in our developing architectures.