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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (13051)	8/26/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: gbh	Respond to of 18016

Pat, addressable market doesn't mean they will own that entire share, obviuosly. But I'm sure they feel they can take 20-30%. TLAB is one major competitor I see, taking a significant hit on this news. TLAB is obviously well established in the area of DCS and Sonet transport, but they have nothing like the Cerent box. gary

To: pat mudge who wrote (13051)	8/26/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Pat, Yes $10B is what Chambers said. I strongly doubt that CSCO will have an easy sell to the major common carriers after taking out AT&T's network for a day or so. The Cerent box, to me, sounds as if it's targetted right at the heart of Carriers' network capability. Any slight outage here would be seen by all customers across all services. It would be an extraordinarily rigorous sales process even for LU, NT, etc. This is just not CSCO's strength. Can they do it? Don't know. But I wouldn't rely on their track record with ISPs and Large Companies as the sole indicator of their success in this space. As usual with anything, the most important step in building a new product, is that original "Eureka" into what would lead to a dramatic improvement. The Eureka is now in the public domain. Others will have been working on a better mousetrap for some time, perhaps even years. After the WCOM 10 day failure, I think CSCO is going to have a very difficult time displacing TLAB let alone capturing a 30%+ market share. But if they do, it's time to sell NN and go with the next world ruler. JMHO, Ian.