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To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (39645)	8/26/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: Eldon Slife	Respond to of 116805

Ole 49r Care to share with us where you are waiting out the Y2K problem? Eldon Slife

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (39645)	8/26/1999 2:58:00 PM
From: Fitz	Respond to of 116805

ole/49er Good to hear from......... Hope u r well & finding plenty of nuggets...... Please keep in touch....... Fitz

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (39645)	8/26/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116805

Economics 101- The Fed has been too slow and cautious in raising American interest rates ?IF I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said,? Alan Greenspan, chairman of America?s Federal Reserve, once told a congressman. Wall Street, however, finds the Fed?s message clear enough. The stockmarket shrugged off the Fed?s quarter-point increase in interest rates, to 5.25%, on August 24th?just as it had the Fed?s previous rate rise two months ago. By increasing interest rates so timidly, the Fed is allowing investors to believe that each rate rise may be the last. This belief is dangerously misplaced. America?s economic expansion is now 101 months old, and, like many Americans this summer, the economy is looking uncomfortably hot. Even if you believed that the country?s potential growth rate had risen thanks to faster productivity growth, its current pace would still be unsustainable. The labour market is getting ever tighter, with widespread reports of labour shortages; wage inflation is starting to pick up. The much-touted slowdown in GDP growth in the second quarter largely reflected a drop in stockbuilding, which may rebound in the second half of the year as firms cushion themselves against the risks posed by the millennium bug. Other recent figures bear out fears that growth in domestic demand remains too strong. Consumer spending is being fuelled both by rising share prices and by a borrowing spree. Robust demand is also sucking in imports, pushing the trade deficit to a record level in June. It is true that consumer-price inflation remains relatively subdued, at 2.1% in July, but it is a mistake to take too much comfort from this lagging indicator when so many other forward-looking ones are flashing red. It is also a mistake to turn a blind eye to other worrying imbalances in the economy. The Economist has long been fretting about America?s financial bubble. But it is not just the level of share prices that gives sleepless nights; it is also the fact that it has been accompanied by mushrooming consumer and corporate debt. Negative personal savings and the increase in the private-sector financial deficit to a record 5% of GDP all point the same way. Spending cannot increase faster than income forever. Faced with this truism, a prudent central bank would have tightened policy more aggressively by now. Yet even after this week?s rise, American short-term interest rates are still a quarter of a point lower than they were a year ago, before the Fed eased in response to the financial jitters caused by Russia?s default. Since inflation has edged up over that period, nominal rates would need to rise to around 6% merely to take real interest rates back to their level of a year ago. So long as a buoyant stockmarket and rampant credit expansion continue to boost growth, it will take more than a few small interest-rate rises to slow America?s boom. Indeed, such timid moves may falsely reassure Wall Street that the Fed has everything safely under control?encouraging the stockmarket to ever giddier heights. ÿ Dollar dilemma Over the past year, the rest of the world economy, which was a big concern a year ago, has also perked up. Not only has this put upward pressure on oil prices, it has also made the dollar less attractive. America?s current-account deficit is likely to widen to almost 4% of GDP this year. If foreigners? appetite for dollar assets wanes, the dollar could tumble. Just as the dollar?s strength over the past two years has helped to hold down American inflation, any weakening would have the reverse effect, pushing up import prices. A vulnerable dollar, a stockmarket that on most measures looks hugely overvalued, a monstrous overhang of personal and corporate debt: all combine to make it more likely that America?s boom will end in a hard landing. To avoid this will test the revered (if opaque) Mr Greenspan to the limit. But his dilemma is largely of his own making: it reflects a failure to tackle America?s economic imbalances earlier, before they had become so severe. ÿ economist.com

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (39645)	8/26/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: d:oug	Respond to of 116805

WHAT TURNIP TRUCK DID YOU FALL OFF OF ole/49r ? <<[GATA] lacks pizzaz, leadership and is about as half baked as any to come down the pike in a long time!>> You missed the boat on this one yore49err, but there is still time to join the side that will prevail. But then your posts appear to be of that one person in 49 that fell asleep in class, Life 101. Ayup, never too late for one like yourself to obtain a fresh update and erase and/or fix o49errata, or so. <<whatever happened to that big fuss the thread was making earlier over GS buying a pisspot full of Aug 270 gold calls, which expired worthless last Friday. Isn't anybody going to hold that threader accountable for posting that piece...>> Calm down a49error, you are getting sloppy and slobbering all over yourself !!! I don't have the time now to explain and educate you on how events of the manipulation game happen, maybe later, but in 49erratic nut shells you can rest assured that accountability is not in one of them. Douga54 49 YeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHAWs and whata U get ? = screwy logic