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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kha vu who wrote (57941)	8/26/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 120523

Statistics compiled by Long John* on the July Earnings Plays (103 triggering buys). Fantastic job of statistical analysis. I don't expect you all to remember anything of this but it will be added to the Manual and explained in detail. It is my hope that in the near future Earnings Plays for Intermediate Holds will be have a more important role in Market Gems. 103 EP's were called by you on SI as triggering buys. (that was a busy month!) 83 EP's had anticipatory upswing. a) 73% of EP's with upswing had a positive return from the price at trigger to the last close before earnings. (Of course all of them could have been sold for a positive return sometime before earnings.) b) The average return from trigger to earnings was 6.4%. (Again returns would be better if calculated using price at sell trigger.) c) The average number of trading days the buy call was made before earnings was 6.2. However, the lowest price before earnings occurred an average of 16.1 trading days before earnings (at a price 15% lower than last close before earnings). d) The average earnings surprise was 25%. Only 3 stocks had a negative surprise. e) 59% of the stocks closed down the first day after earnings. f) The lowest average return after earnings was -11% on the 14th day. The 14 days corresponds to the market correction which bottomed 16 days after it peaked. g) The average return 20 trading days after earnings was -7.9%. *http://www.concentric.net/~jlaylor/index.shtml