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August 27, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #34
Internetstocks.com Overview - Keith E. Benjamin
mailto:keith@rsco.com
This week, the NETDEX index increased 8% to 538.169 compared with
the NASDAQ's 3% increase.
BARBEQUE HEATING UP-The sector appears to have warmed up as we
had hoped. We would continue to add to existing positions and
broaden our list of purchases. Yahoo! seems to be leading the
group again, up more than 20% from its recent low but still
around 37% below its recent high. AOL still appears quite
attractive, having only started to move, from our perspective.
AOL is up only approximately 16% from its recent low and still
about 43% below its recent high. We believe investors will
continue to favor the largest franchises, particularly those
already demonstrating profitability. In our opinion, the
eTailing stocks can have a sharper seasonal turnaround.
Priceline stands out as having rebounded the least, although we
see more room for Amazon, eBay, eToys, and Alloy. In our view,
CMGI provides a proxy to purchase a broad basket of Internet
stocks. Still, we believe there is increasing appreciation of
the leaders in smaller categories with business models that can
turn profitable faster. Companies providing content and services
on an outsource basis generally fit this criteria. These include
Digital River, Fatbrain, Infospace, Mapquest, and AskJeeves. We
generally like companies that provide services to the big brands
without risking investments in their own brand building. These
toll-taker business models are starting to stand out. Examples
include the eMarketing companies such as DoubleClick and
MediaMetrix, which help marketers improve targeting and measure
results, effectively taking a percentage of marketing spending.
A few vertical consumer networks have been moving from
advertising to commerce, allowing business model leverage. These
include CNET, SportsLine, Student Advantage and TicketMaster
Online CitySearch. This week, we added coverage of Quokka
Sports, which is positioned to provide content over expanding
broadband access. Business networks are also emerging to allow
business-to-business commerce, including Chemdex, a new company
on our team's coverage list. Chemdex is one of the first
eBusiness vertical networks, set to dramatically improve the
efficiency of distributing products for the life sciences
industry.
WEB ADDICTION - Whenever we lapse into wondering about valuation,
we try to remember why the Web economy is expanding so quickly.
We were encouraged this week by a survey suggesting that the Web
is addictive. According to the American Psychological
Association, some 6% of Internet users appear to compulsively use
the Web. Some 17,251 people responded to a questionnaire on
ABCNEWS.com. While it may be a stretch to characterize 6% or some
portion of users as suffering from a psychological disorder, we
can see examples of obsessive behavior, including day trading.
While no survey is perfect, we have no problem believing in the
Web's power to capture time as it becomes easier to use. We are
actually hopeful we are starting to see more positive signs of
people finding shopping more convenient online, which is the key
driver of value for most Web companies.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan
This week the eTailDex closed at 1099.3, up 13% from 972.3 last
week, continuing a rebound in the group. Despite this improved
trend, the eTailDex currently stands 39% below recent highs
achieved the week of April 23.
Given continued underlying strength in online shopping patterns,
which were reaffirmed by better-than-expected July shopping
traffic data reported last week by MediaMetrix, we remain
convinced that investors should benefit from focusing on the
eTail group as we approach the holiday season. We expect solid
Q3 results and favorable early reads in the holiday season to
continue fueling appreciation in the stocks.
PRICELINE - STILL HIGHLY MISUNDERSTOOD - Unlike some of the other
stocks of the other Blue Chip eTailers who have bounced off of
the lows tested in early August, Priceline is trading
approximately 10% above its recent low and still 56% below recent
highs. For reference, Amazon is up about one-third from its
recent low and about 42% below its recent high. EBay is up 38%
from its recent low and still down approximately 45% from its
recent high. EToys is up more than 34% from its recent low and
still off some 46% from recent highs.
We attribute this lag to an ongoing lack of appreciation for the
company's unique demand collection system, which we view as
highly extendable to a variety of consumer and business
application. The concerns about the company's prospects continue
to revolve around Priceline's highly successful, airline product.
Priceline seems the victim of its own success, with the travel
offering's impressive momentum eclipsing the wide range of
consumer and business categories that are ripe for application of
the patented Priceline demand collection system. We remain
highly impressed by the brand's power and momentum. Priceline
has been widely acknowledged as the second most recognized
consumer eCommerce brand, second only to Amazon, with more than
100 million U.S. adults recognizing the Priceline.com brand. We
anticipate dramatic upside potential in the stock and encourage
purchase given our expectations that upcoming announcements
regarding specifics of the Priceline auto program rollout and
other new services should serve as positive catalysts while also
motivating short covering.
EBAY DOES THE RIGHT THING (AGAIN) - EBay made news again this
week when it announced changes to those auctions in which the
seller elects to use a reserve price, including charging an
additional $1 fee. Also this week, the company pulled an auction
from its Web site, for stock in a company that had just filed for
Chapter 11 and whose trading has been halted on Nasdaq. Both
stories made headlines about how the company upset its users;
what we would like to highlight is how, once again, the company
swiftly reacted to its customers' protests to mitigate their
displeasure. After many eBay users protested the changes in
policy, eBay quickly responded by reducing the charge to $0.50,
with the fee being credited in the event that the reserve auction
closes, and dropping the minimum bid price requirement.
Regarding the proposed auction of stock, the company was merely
maintaining a policy that had been in effect for several months.
In our view, eBay has become a highly effective self-regulating
community, with the company continuously responding to feedback
from its highly involved user community. We believe we are still
in the early stages of the development of the huge
person-to-person auction market. EBay remains the leader in this
brave new world and as such, has had to evolve its infrastructure
and policies as the need arises. While its leadership position
frequently puts it in the spotlight and requires it to do some
legwork for its competitors, we believe eBay continues to build
upon a foundation of users and experience that is increasingly
becoming difficult for others to replicate.
ALLOY GEARS FOR CHRISTMAS IN AUGUST - While we expect many
eTailers to show accelerated growth in the upcoming holiday
season, Alloy Online stands out as an eTailer with the
opportunity to benefit from two significant seasonal surges.
The first big season for Alloy is back-to-school (which is
occurring now and we believe should help drive robust Q3
performance.) We expect strong results from the company that
caters to Generation Y customers at a time when overall Internet
usage, and Internet usage for community and eTailing sites are at
all-time highs (Alloy is expected to report its Q2 results after
Labor Day). A study released this week found that teens view
surfing the Web more as a social event, like going to a mall,
than as a pure shopping experience. This finding underscores the
reason for our bullish outlook on Alloy. Alloy recognized this
trend at an early stage and already complements its eTail
offerings with free e-mail, Web page hosting, real-time chat and
forums focused on teen issues. Thus, as the back to school rush
intensifies and the holiday season follows almost immediately, we
believe the company is well positioned to maintain its momentum
and expand its customer base by leveraging its balanced commerce,
content and community offerings. Media Metrix statistics for
July showed that unique visitors to alloy.com increased by 10% in
July over June, following a 57% increase in June over May. As
word of mouth widens the Alloy community in the high school halls
and in the shopping malls (bolstered by recent new creative
traffic deals with Yahoo & Excite@Home, we expect revenue
expansion to follow, driven both by commerce and by additional
advertising revenue.
EARLY PRESENTS FOR US, TOO - One of the occupational hazards of
trying to analyze the young and rapidly growing eTailing space
(in addition to spending too much money shopping online) is the
rudimentary tools available to measure performance of individual
companies. Fortunately, in response to the anticipated demands
from the investor, corporate, and media communities for more
granular shopping data on holiday season performance, Media
Metrix, BizRate and NextCard announced new, more detailed
measures of online shopping that will be available just in time
for the holidays. Specifically, Media Metrix announced a
partnership with BizRate.com to provide more accurate and
comprehensive eCommerce measurement services. Media Metrix has
established itself as the premier source of metered shopping data
on the Web, with companies and industry analysts alike anxiously
awaiting monthly reports for the latest reach, unique user and
stickiness statistics. BizRate collects point-of-purchase data
by surveying customers from over 1,700 online merchants, tracking
purchasing behavior, measuring eCommerce satisfaction, and rating
merchants on their performance. In addition, NextCard announced
that it also will be providing a more detailed look at online
spending patterns, based on the monthly transactions of about
100,000 NextCard Internet Visa cardholders. NextCard has created
an index, based on actual purchases rather than visitor data, to
identify the top 25 online merchants and movement within its top
10 list. NextCard heralds its users as "the most Internet-savvy,
active online shoppers," making online purchases about five times
more frequently than the average online credit card customer.
While this index is therefore not representative of the mass
market, it represents an improvement in measurement tools similar
to that which will be offered by Media Metrix. While we look
forward to having better and more timely data regarding eTailers,
we caution that fluctuations in results could likely drive
increased stock volatility similar to the way retail stocks react
to monthly comparable same store sales trends. We expect shifts
in data could be particularly difficult to interpret given we
have limited historical context and trend data to apply to the
analysis.
NORDSTROM TO OFFER "THE WORLD'S LARGEST SHOE STORE" - Nordstrom
became the most recent retailer to establish a venture-backed
Internet subsidiary. The company announced the creation of a
subsidiary encompassing its catalog and Internet businesses and
plans to launch the world's largest shoe store with 20 million
pairs available for purchase. The company will contribute all
catalog and Internet assets, plus $10 million, with Benchmark
Capital contributing $15 million, and Madrona Investment Group
offering $1 million. Nordstrom's more aggressive move into
eTailing offers many of the desirable synergies of a hybrid with
established vendor relationships, a well known brand, a loyal
customer base established through 98 years of retailing
experience, and an existing call center and fulfillment
infrastructure to support the Web site. However, the stock did
not appear to move on this news. We are encouraged that
investors have become more discriminating and are looking for
proof that such ambitious plans will pay off before bidding up
the shares.
GAP PUTS IT ALL ON(THE)LINE- After much anticipation, Gap will
finally be offering its full line of brands online, announcing a
three year agreement with America Online to bring Gap, Banana
Republic and Old Navy products to the Shop@AOL marketplace.
Gap's offerings will span much of the AOL shopping landscape,
occupying anchor tenancy and premier placements at Shop@AOL,
Shop@Netscape.com and Shop@Compuserve.com. The company plans to
offer and promote products ranging from Men's and Women's
apparel, to Babies, Kids, and Teen apparel and GapBody items that
will appear in the lingerie area. AOL's rollout of its shopping
marketplace began in July and is expected to be completed in
October. AOL Web sites combined to reach 67% of Internet users,
or 42.4 million unique visitors in July, according to Media
Metrix data, making it the highest ranking domain name on the
Internet. We continue to believe fashion will be set offline
and Gap, with its clearly communicated brand, should be poised to
help migrate its customers to the online channel. We note that
Gap already was the 38th most visited shopping site during July,
and we expect this ranking to improve as a result of this
broadened online exposure.
NEWS IN THE ONLINE TOY SECTOR - We believe eToys will expand its
leadership position despite competitive noise. Toys R Us' online
efforts were set back further when Robert Nakasone resigned as
CEO and director. Perhaps providing some insight into the delays
that have plagued the company's online push, Toys R Us cited
"differing views regarding the direction of the company" as the
reason for his departure. Walt Disney's Buena Vista Internet
Group made a $40-50 million investment in Toysmart.com, a toy
eTailer with a focus on high-quality, educational toys. The
company reportedly is spending $25 million in the fourth quarter
to build the Toysmart brand, with Disney pledging to aggressively
promote the toy seller across its related interests, including
its Family.com site, Go Network portal, television stations,
movies, and even Mighty Ducks hockey games. Given Disney's
lagging presence online, we don't see this as much of a threat.
eNetwork Update - Michael Graham - michael@rsco.com
INITIATING COVERAGE OF QUOKKA SPORTS - We initiated coverage this
week on Quokka Sports with a Buy rating. Quokka creates digital
programming that lets its audience be active participants in
real-time sporting events. Quokka focuses on delivering depth of
sports coverage versus breadth. The company targets traditionally
hard to track sporting events, such as sailing and motor racing.
In our view, the rich media nature of Quokka's programming is
ideal for broadband delivery. Quokka's strategic relationships
include a joint venture with NBC Olympics, under which Quokka has
rights to cover the Summer and Winter Olympics through 2004.
Quokka also has exclusive digital media rights in the sailing and
motor racing sports categories. We believe catalysts could
include additional coverage contracts for new sports categories.
We believe Quokka's rights, technology and strategy will yield a
large, long-term business model.
FATBRAIN.COM REPORTS FASTER GROWTH - Fatbrain reported July Q2
revenues of $7.4 million above our estimate of $7.1 million.
Fatbrain added 800 new corporate partners, bringing the total to
2,041. Microsoft and Fatbrain extended their relationship with
the launch of a new-online bookstore, the fourth Fatbrain store
created for Microsoft's online properties. Fatbrain now provides
outsource bookstores and is expanding its range of services.
Fatbrain reaches more than 1 million individuals at corporate
organizations compared with the 600,000 individuals at the end of
Q1. Online print-on-demand documentation was surprisingly strong,
representing 10.8% of sales versus 5.5% in Q1. We estimate that
print-on-demand has margins 2-3x the normal book business and
represents a compelling eSourcing opportunity. We believe
Fatbrain is solving the corporate "headache" of documentation
distribution. We expect the company to demonstrate accelerating
growth as it adds more customers and selsl more products and
services to each customer. We do not believe the company's
potential is yet reflected in the stock.
EXCITE @HOME - Looking Past Confusion - We believe most of the
confusion appears to be centered around AT&T's perceived level of
commitment, while open access issues appear to have subsided for
the moment. We believe Excite @Home represents the fastest way
for AT&T to pay for its $140 billion investment in cable
infrastructure, by capturing a larger portion of the estimated
$150 that households will spend monthly on communications and
entertainment (cable, telephone, Internet, etc.). We believe the
company's fundamental outlook has been improving substantially,
setting the stock up to move higher when the confusion clears.
Based on our telephone survey with 20 of @Home's cable partners,
we believe the new subscriber rollout is on schedule. We found
that there was a two to four week installation backlog in the
market, giving high visibility for our 1999 year-end 1.1 million
subscriber estimate. We believe that there is upside to
subscriber growth in Q4 and beyond with the role out of DOCSIS
modems. We believe Excite @Home could begin to show its breadth
of vision with new partnerships, including deals for "@Home-Ready
PCs" with PC manufacturers and other customer acquisition
initiatives with large companies such as Microsoft. We believe
Excite @Home is one of the only Internet companies with a
compelling asset value. Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation of
MatchLogic, Excite, and @Home, we estimate the company could be
worth $40 billion, or $100 per share.
GEMSTAR - We believe that the story is still underappreciated.
We believe that there is potential for more usage and related
advertising than almost any Internet company. We expect to hear
more good news soon on both the litigation and licensing fronts.
We like the risk/reward profile of the stock, with advertising
revenue creating the potential for 5-10x upside to our estimates,
while the company's core licensing business provides some
downside protection. This week, Gemstar extended its
international presence, by signing an agreement with Axel
Springer Verlags, of Germany, to collaborate over broadcasts of
subscription free EPG services to customers. We believe that
this type of relationship is indicative of Gemstar's intentions
to capture a portion of the advertising dollars that will be
running through it's EPGs in the future.
SPORTSLINE LEADING IN REACH - It was announced that SportsLine's
reach to Internet users surpassed all other sports Web sites in
the month of July. The study done by Media Metrix reported
SportsLine USAs combined reach among users at home and at work
was 6.6% for the month, beating out ESPN, whose reach was 6.4%.
SportsLine's reach increased 12% over June, while ESPN's declined
7%. Fall promotions could help momentum.
ASK JEEVES ADDING CORPORATE CUSTOMERS - Both Iomega and Micron
Electronics have signed on with Ask Jeeves to become customers of
the Ask Jeeves' Corporate Question Answering Service. Beyond
offering its services to leading PC manufacturers, Ask Jeeves is
broadening its efforts to secure other technology market leaders
as customers. We expect that Ask Jeeves will continue building
momentum.
AMERICA ONLINE KEEPS MOVING PAST COMPETITIVE NOISE - We must
acknowledge that AltaVista attracted some 225,000 users in two
weeks with free Internet Access. In exchange for permanently
setting home pages to MyAltaVista, individuals save the $10-20
monthly subscription fee. We estimate the wholesale cost to
AltaVista would be less than $10 per month. We wonder whether
AltaVista will be able to scale and sustain this model, given the
need to provide a high quality of service and current levels of
advertising/commerce revenue per user from other portals. We
have seen AOL fend of fprice-based competition before, with
habits creating loyalty and brand momentum building. Despite
competitive noise, we believe AOL continues to widen the gap with
incremental services such as AIM enhancements. The announcement
that AOL has launched its next generation of AOL Instant
Messenger (AIM 3.0), along with recent collaborative agreements
with APPLE, Earthlink, Mindspring, Juno and Novell, gives AIM
more than 45 million registered users, 15 of which are AOL
members, who are sending more than 450 million messages daily.
AIM 3.0 offers users a full package of next-generation
communications tools that are expected to enrich and broaden
their instant-messaging experience.
eBusiness Update - Eric Upin - eric@rsco.com
STAMPS.COM SIGNS DEAL WITH MICROSOFT - Stamps.com signed a deal
with Microsoft in which its software will be available for
downloading on the Office Update Web site. We understand the
terms include a modest fixed payment to Microsoft in the $1
million range. We expect this may be the first deal in an
expanded relationship. Already, after one downloads the
software, it is compatible with Microsoft applications,
effectively acting as feature while printing from Outlook or Word
or other programs. Eventually, we expect it is possible for the
Stamps.com function to be bundled in the box. For now, we view
this modest deal as strategically significant because Microsoft
has a minority investment in eStamp, a hardware-based competitor.
We are encouraged that Microsoft did this deal despite this
investment. However, we are not surprised, because eStamp's
solution is not as easily bundled as Stamps.com's software
solution. Also, we understand that Stamps.com allows faster
printing because it is not slowed down by a hardware device, with
the speed of the printer the effective limitation. We expect
Stamps.com's adoption rate to be significantly faster than
eStamp's as it rolls out nationally, starting officially on
September 27. Between now and then, the approximately 1,500 beta
users will be converted to regular users. On that date, a total
of 10,000 people will be allowed to use the service from a
backlog of interest estimated in excess 30,000. We expect
considerable promotional attention this fall will help the
service and the stock.
INITIATING COVERAGE OF CHEMDEX - We are initiating coverage of
Chemdex with a Buy rating. We believe it is the leading provider
of eBusiness Solutions for an estimated $15-billion life sciences
products marketplace. Chemdex provides a secure electronic
marketplace for life science enterprises, researchers and
suppliers to buy and sell chemical and other research products.
The market for life science products is very inefficient, with
fragmented supplier and buyer bases being served through paper
catalogues that are often out of date. The Web-based Chemdex
marketplace efficiently matches buyers with suppliers, improving
efficiency and reducing ordering costs by as much as 40% for
suppliers and even more for buyers. Potential catalysts include
signing up the last remaining suppliers, continued customer and
registered user growth, increased transactions and new vertical
markets. Chemdex is the first public company in what we expect
will be a series of companies focused on developing online
trading communities for vertical industries. We believe Chemdex
can grow into a large valuation.
EMarketing Update - Lowell J. Singer - mailto:lowell@rsco.com
EMarketers Aiding Targeting: There has been consistent concern
regarding the effectiveness of banner ads. While it appears the
impact and response rates on non-targeted banners remain low, we
believe targeted banners will continue to be very effective and
justify higher prices. We believe that eMarketing companies will
add value for eTailers and advertisers by helping them reach the
most appropriate audience. We estimate that U.S. online direct
marketing and advertising spending could approach $25 billion in
2002, with eMarketers capturing over $2 billion of this revenue
in the form of "toll" payments for use of their proprietary
targeting data.
DoubleClick Positioned as eMarketing Powerhouse: Questions
regarding advertising rates and the company's historic
concentration of revenues with AltaVista appear to have help back
DoubleClick's stock. As indicated above, we see targeting adding
value to advertising. With DoubleClick's proposed acquisitions
of Abacus Direct and NetGravity, it appears to be the leader with
reduced reliance on Alta Vista. DoubleClick is in the process of
building the largest targeting database that will allow the
company to collect "tolls" every time Web advertisers or eTailers
use the data. If successful, we believe DoubleClick has a chance
to be the largest toll collector in the eMarketing sector and to
grow into a substantial valuation.
Media Metrix Expands Offerings: Media Metrix recently made two
announcements that will further enhance its product offerings.
As discussed above, Media Metrix announced a partnership with
BizRate.com that will provide eCommerce clients with a deeper
understanding of online shopping trends. In addition, Media
Metrix introduced Q-Metrix, a product that will offer clients
more qualitative data on Web users. We believe that these
announcements will only enhance Media Metrix's ability to provide
its customers with the most valuable Internet usage data. We
believe that VNU's recently announced purchase of Nielsen and its
share of NetRatings, Media Metrix's only competitor, demonstrates
the long-term attractiveness of online measurement services. We
continue to believe the Media Metrix remains the leading brand
name in this business and has a potentially insurmountable lead
over NetRatings.
eBrokers - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby -
mailto:scott@rsco.com
The Fed's highly anticipated quarter point hike on Tuesday and
continued neutral bias appeared to have had marginal impact on
this week's NETDEX volumes. Volumes declined a mere 0.9% to 686
million shares traded from 692 million, while NASDAQ volumes for
the week were actually up 5% from 4.2 billion to 4.4 billion.
In terms of price, eBrokers responded much like the broader
markets with a rally (albeit smaller than the broader market on
the whole) just prior to the Fed news only to fall back by
Tuesday's close. At week's end, the eBrokers as a group were down
on average 9.5% for the week while the NASDAQ Financial Index was
down just shy of 1% and the NASDAQ composite was up 3% over the
same time period. We believe the eBrokers, already beaten down by
greater than expected seasonality, are suffering from a
multiplier effect with any additional bad news.
NEW DEALS FOR ACTIVE TRADERS - This past week, two of the
industry's leaders - E*Trade and Schwab -- announced programs to
reward their most active trading customers. E*Trade unveiled a
revamped Power E*Trade program with a scaled pricing scheme that
rewards greater trading activity. The first 29 trades for the
quarter are charged at the regular commission rate. For 30-74
trades a quarter, the charge will be $9.95 per trade for market
orders and $14.95 for limit orders. Then for 75 trades and more a
quarter, the charge will be an industry low $4.95 for a market
order and $9.95 for a limit order. Moreover, Platinum Power
E*Trade holders (75 or more trades a quarter) will be given
preferred access to IPOs versus the old first come, first serve
method originally used by E*Trade.
Schwab introduced Velocity, like E*Trade, geared toward rewarding
Schwab's more active traders as defined as those making more than
12 trades per year. However, Velocity, true to its moniker, will
focus on increasing the transfer speed of its customers' orders,
an important element to receiving best execution. Velocity will
provide access to a dedicated Web site where customers can submit
multiple orders while still having access to Schwab.com
(simultaneously if necessary), where they can continue receive
research, real-time quotes, and other value-added services.
We are not that surprised to see E*Trade and Schwab's reward
their most active trading customers. Given the low switching
costs and increased competition among the top industry players,
E*Trade and Schwab through price incentives and improved
execution speed, respectively, have provided considerable
differentiation among its peers. Moreover, we believe market
segmentation based on trading activity or assets makes
considerable sense given the favorable economics from customers
that either trade more often or park more of their assets with
the firm.
Internet Enabling Technology Update -- John Powers --
mailto:JP@rsco.com
The Buck Starts Here. In today's world of money-losing ISPs, the
race is on to gain market share and grow user footprint, and the
newest thing is the free ISP. We find it important to keep our
eye on the ball of long-term profitability. ISPs success will
ultimately have to be fueled by inherent profitability because
investors won't subsidize growth forever. One of our core
Internet enablers is a technology leadership company that is a
key partner of Internet service providers as they try to build
sustainable profitable business models. With Portal Software,
which provides Internet friendly real time billing software, ISPs
can tune service offerings to be flexibly priced for market
acceptance and profitability. Take a look at NetworkStocks this
week to get our detailed thoughts on this exciting company.
Subscribe by writing to mailto:NetworkStocks@rsco.com or go to
www.networkstocks.com and subscribe from there.
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Ticker Rating Price Price
8/19 8/12 1-Wk 52-Wk Chg
Chg High 52Wk
8/19 High to
to 8/12 8/19
ALOY BUY $13 $10 29% $23 1/5 -43.9%
AMZN SBUY $128 4/7 $106 1/8 21% $221 1/4 -41.9%
AOL SBUY $100 4/9 $95 3/4 5% $175 1/2 -42.8%
ASKJ BUY $34 3/8 |
