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Biotech / Medical : PARANOID! TIRED OF TALKING TO YOURSELF? LET'S TALK(TTP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (423)	8/27/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Respond to of 626

Rich, I'm with you.....no problem with this dilution issue. Considering they only have about 15 million shares out, institutional holdings represent 34%(tells me that someone has done some serious DD on this stock)and this little jewel only has a market cap of about $150 million. If! And I do mean IF. If Zomaril is the drug we think it is and with Novartis spending over $100 million on trials they must think the same, then the revenue alone for TTP would equal the current market cap. Now tell me, how many companies have a revenue stream and market cap the same? Back to the dilution issue. This will provide a source of funding without the perils of other type funding and will give the retail customer a chance to put more common shares in their hands. I haven't taken any money off the table, but "congrats" on your winning hand.(:>)

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (423)	8/27/1999 4:45:00 PM
From: RCMac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 626

>>an estimate of $600M/year for ilo is very reasonable, and a decent rate of penetration could be expected. 25% of that is TTP's.<< Hmmm. 25% = $150 million, as a royalty flowing right to the TTP bottom line. Well now. Current shares outstanding 15.4 million; add 1.2 million for the S-8 you mention and 6.1 million from exercise of the outstanding warrants, and add 2 million (a guess - the 10-K on Edgar oddly doesn't have this and I don't have the hard copy annual report handy) for employee options; this adds up to 24.7 million shares. $150 million divided by 24.7 million = $6.07/share for Zomaril/iloperidone alone (not counting anything for Pivanex, any of the cancer vaccine programs, etc.). Gee, put a PE of 35 on $6.07, and you can imagine a stock price of about $210, a 25-bagger from here. If this is five years out and you discount at 50%, you get a present value of about $27.60/share. If you discount at 40% (high, but not so super-high risk), the PV is about $39/share. All higher if you assume a higher PE, and/or you use a lower discount rate. Or: Assume some R&D expense on the other programs, and some SG&A, call this (arbitrarily) $40 million, leaving net of $110 million, or $4.45/share. etc. Just some idle arithmetic, applied to some possibly not-so-idle dreaming on a pleasant afternoon. Again, thanks Rick, MZ, et al. (I'm hanging on to my TTP warrants, bought mid-January at average cost about 5/8, for a while yet, for the reasons outlined above.) -- RCM