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To: long-gone who wrote (39693)8/27/1999 12:43:00 PM
From: Alex  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116856
 
Germany may lose influence in ECB under Welteke

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Aug. 27-MAR-- [B] BRIDGE FOCUS:Germany may lose influence in ECB under Welteke By Rainer Buergin, Bridge News Frankfurt--Aug 27--Germany"s weight on the board of the European Central Bank"s policy-making board could decrease somewhat as outgoing Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer clears his chair for his successor Ernst Welteke. The head of the "new" Bundesbank will not be able to match Tietmeyer"s 30-year experience in monetary policy affairs and his aura as the last independent Bundesbank head, but economic facts could outweigh some of the loss.

* * * There is agreement among analysts and commentators that Welteke is "the right guy" to head the Bundesbank, having been in command of the Hesse state central bank in Frankfurt, close not only in terms of geographical distance to the Bundesbank headquarters and the ECB. Welteke unsurprisingly is not in the position of drawing level with Tietmeyer, one of the sculptors of European monetary integration in various important government and non-government positions, but is nonetheless widely regarded to be a seasoned central banker. He will not take on Tietmeyer"s role as the relentless admonisher, who almost resembles a preacher when he warns of the dangers of underestimating the threats to price stability or urges euro-zone governments to get serious about removing structural rigidities that are incompatible with deepening economic integration. Nonetheless, Welteke earned the confidence of financial markets on more than one occasion. "The fact that he said after the ECB"s April interest rate cut that this move had not been imperative shows that he thinks independently and that he is not afraid to voice opinions which are contrary to the mainstream," said West LB"s Irgeen Rust. His comments were "courageous" and "good," showing that he doesn"t "let anyone put one over on him," Rust said. It was also Welteke who read out the Bundesbank"s comment to former German Finance Minister Theo Waigel"s quick-fix attempt to revalue the Bundesbank"s gold reserves and use the proceeds to pay back old eastern German debt. Key representatives of Frankfurt"s financial community, who had gathered on the occasion of the state central bank"s 50th anniversary, applauded loudly and lastingly when Welteke convincingly rejected "operation goldfinger" as an attack on the Bundesbank"s independence. "Welteke is a good man and his public comments as Bundesbank president will have an impact just like those of other monetary officials. The key question is how much influence he will have behind closed doors on the ECB council," said Merrill Lynch"s Holger Schmieding. Tietmeyer today appears as a shadow of another age in which the Bundesbank de facto set interest rates for most of Europe. "Tietmeyer today still profits from the phase in which the Bundesbank was independent. Welteke will not have as much influence, he will only be one among 11," Schmieding said. "Tietmeyer"s departure is the farewell of the old Bundesbank," he said. The changeover from Tietmeyer to Welteke was synonymous with declining Bundesbank influence within the ECB, Schmieding said. Rust added it was difficult to say how this shift in weights would impact on the ECB"s decision-making process. In terms of his qualification in the subject of monetary policy and his international contacts, Welteke would not measure up to Tietmeyer"s standard, she said. Welteke would surely do a good job and Germany, despite the concept of "one man one vote," would continue to be one of the countries figuring more prominently on the ECB council, she said. Deutsche Bank"s Manuela Preuschl said one should be careful not to underestimate Welteke as a competent and influential monetary policy official. "One should not make the mistake to wave Welteke aside as a featherweight. Welteke has made himself a name and it may be quite advantageous that he is not quite as formal as Tietmeyer and not such a high priest of price stability," Preuschl said. Influence on the ECB council in the end was not so much a function of personality and prestige but rather the size of the economy and its population, Preuschl said. "Welteke will not fit into Tietmeyer"s shoes right away, but there will not be a big change as a result of the changeover," she said. Tietmeyer will leave office at the end of this month and Welteke will head the Bundesbank from Sep 1. It remains to be seen whether Tietmeyer will stick to the promise he made toward Frankfurt-based journalists not to talk about interest rates and monetary policy any more after the end of his career with the Bundesbank. End Bridge News, Tel: +49-69-25 616 700 Send comments to Internet address: econ@bridge.com German government website: bundesregierung.de Bundesbank: bundesbank.de LINKS The Bridge ID for this story is ZDLBVR



To: long-gone who wrote (39693)8/27/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116856
 
OT:
but would it not be better to have the truth out there and worry less about the spin?

I don't know... as you and others have stated previously... everyone is MORE AFRAID of mass reaction to the uncertainties surrounding Y2K than whatever the actual effects will be.

Given the economic and financial stress that has been going on in Asia for the past two years, who's to say that ignorance isn't "bliss"??

Who are we to issue such a statement that lacks any evidence, one way or another, about what the fallout will be of Y2K related disruptions.

I had a discussion the other day with someone involved in the issue and we were discussing prescription drugs and what type of suggestion should be made. I basically advised a 30 day supply, with the understanding that if there were disruptions of drug supplies in certain nations, then it would be incumbent upon the patient to return to a location where those drugs were available (namely the US).

I mean.. let's get real here (I told my friend)... We don't know what kinds of disruptions will occur, but if they are severe, then it will no longer be a matter of advising US citizens, but of evacuating them (or providing relief flights of needed drugs... etc).

So rather than instigate a panic months ahead of time, the issue should be how to deal with disruptions and developing contingency plans to resolve and minimize disruptions.

I really have preferred the psychology of looking at Y2K as a challenge to be met and overcome, than a situation where we should be heading to the hills.

Personally, if it requires declaring bank holidays and shutting down the stock markets in order to prevent a massive panic, then so be it. People are their own worst enemy and move as a herd, no matter whether or not the leader of that herd is leading them to slaughter or nirvana.

Regards,

Ron