To: nokomis who wrote (58125 ) 8/28/1999 8:00:00 AM From: puborectalis Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
READ THIS POKEMON UPDATE....Some feel that all of the Pokemon stocks could get a second wind and surge anew. Toy-expert Julie Creighton, who consults for the Duracell Ultra Kids Choice Toy Survey, expects sales of Pokemon paraphernalia to reach their peak this holiday season, which could drive some of these toy stocks up again. But even if you think these stocks are wildly overvalued, you shouldn't try to short them. Indeed much of the strong gains in recent days likely came from a massive short squeeze as short sellers were forced to cover their positions. But after Christmas, Pokemon-driven stocks will probably have seen their glory days. Creighton says kids fads like Pokemon usually have a limited shelf life. 'Generally, if it's a strong license they probably get three good years and definitely some carry over after that,' she says. 'The time when the media is interested in covering it rarely goes on for more than a three-year stand. Some don't even make that.' But on the market, stock life is much shorter. 4Kids, Topps, and Grand Toys, which have Pokemon to credit for their recent success, don't make wise long-term investments at current levels, as some investors of the now-defunct Happiness Express undoubtedly found out the hard way. Happiness, a New York toy company, saw its stock climb to $18 in late 1994 as the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers took the toy market by storm. But as the kids ditched the Rangers for better toys, Happiness turned to Sadness. In early September 1995, insiders began to pull out of their positions before a one-day, 36% collapse on September 7. The Power Rangers, which accounted for 75% of the company's 1995 revenue, had morphed out of style. And the next year, Happiness filed for bankruptcy. Not that 4Kids, Topps or Grand Toys are heading for the dumpster, but there is a lesson to be learned from those who overestimated the Power Rangers' staying power. Any analyst who says 2001 Pokemon sales are going to increase is living in a fantasy world. Bottom Line: Though the wild ride in Pokemon stocks seemed to have cooled for now, they could gain momentum again later this year, boosted by strong holiday season sales. But remember, these stocks are highly speculative and you should watch your positions closely. Should the music stop, you don't want to be the last one standing. THE STOCKS TO WATCH...kide tmax grin topp and BGST(yet to move)