To: Maurice Winn who wrote (6945 ) 8/27/1999 5:29:00 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 29987
Doomed Part 2> The jet-set executives didn't need satellite phones to make calls from Tokyo, London or New York. They certainly weren't willing to pay $3,000 for an Iridium handset that couldn't even handle calls inside buildings or cars when the line-of-site connection with the orbiting satellites was blocked. Also, the satellite phones require larger power packs than cellular ones, so the handsets are much bulkier. As a result, Iridium was able to sign up only a fraction of the 500,000 subscribers that creditors had expected this year. Iridium's missteps may have cost ICO Global desperately needed financing. ICO, which aims to have 12 satellites in orbit by the end of next year, said two weeks ago it failed to secure $600 million in financing commitments it was seeking. ''If you have an industry where a very visible player has major financial problems, investors get cold feet,'' said Robert Wilkes, telecommunications analyst with Brown Brothers Harriman. ''Given the trauma that has taken place here (with Iridium), it may be some time before investors will be ready to come back in.'' Analysts said there are niche markets that need satellite phone communications, namely the government, maritime and mining companies, and disaster relief agencies, which could use the phones when earthquakes or wars knocked out phone lines. The question is, can Iridium, ICO Global and others make enough money off of those markets to justify the multibillion-dollar cost of launching and maintaining the satellites? ''If something breaks up in the sky, it's hard to fix,'' Brown Brothers Harriman's Wilkes said. ''There are going to be a lot of lessons learned here.'' Iridium and ICO Global's financial woes haven't stopped Teledesic LLC, the planned $9 billion satellite venture backed by billionaires Craig McCaw and Bill Gates, from proceeding with its plans to build a high-speed, two-way global data network by 2004. However, First Union's Roberts said Teledesic may face rough times as well. ''We have been calling Teledesic 'son of Iridium','' Roberts said. "For many of the same reasons that we think Iridium failed, we think Teledesic is likely to fail. It's too expensive, It's too grandiose. ''The most damning part of it is that by the time something like Teledesic gets launched, the tentacles of fiber optic cable and the capabilities of wireless networks will have stretched even further,'' Roberts added. ''The potential target market will shrink dramatically.'' Robert Nyhus, a spokesman for Seattle-based Teledesic, said the bankruptcy filings by ICO Global and Iridium won't derail Teledesic's plans since the company specializes in data rather than voice communications. ''If you look at the worldwide broadband market, we're just beginning to scratch the surface,'' he said. ''We are providing a capability that doesn't exist today and won't exist until Teledesic comes to market.''