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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (24022)	8/27/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom	Respond to of 99985

Les, since the Dow hit a new high this week, doesn't that blow a huge hole through the September 9 (55 day) doomsday scenario? Guess we now have to look 55 days from August 25, right? Looks like a mid-October crash I guess. Gee, wouldn't that be novel? <ggg>

To: Les H who wrote (24022)	8/28/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the Market News weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. -- New Home Sales for July (annual rate, thousands) Monday, August 30 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 New Homes 905k 870k to 944k 16 -- 929k 901k Comments: New home sales are expected to fall 2.6% to a 905,000 annual rate in the July report, in line with softened, but still strong home resales. New home slaes rose in June on buyers attempting to lock in rates, but the continued hike in mortgage rates appears to have retrained sales in the most recent month. -- Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August (index) Tuesday, August 31 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Confidence 134.3 134.0 to 136.0 11 -- 135.6 139.0 Comments: Confidence is expected to edge down to 134.3 in August compared with 135.6 in July and the 30-year high of 139.0 in June. Confidence continues to be reflected in steady consumption, though expectations for the near future are less optimistic recently. -- Chicago Purchasers Index for August (index) Tuesday, August 31 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Chicago PMI 60.0 57.0 to 61.5 10 -- 60.5 60.0 Comments: The Chicago PMI index is expected to hold virtually steady at 60.0 in August, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector in August, and in line with the Philadelphia Fed index's increase. -- Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for August (mln units, saar) Wednesday, September 1 through Friday, September 3 Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Car Sales 7.1m 6.8m to 7.4m 12 -- 7.0m 7.0m Lt Trucks 7.4m 6.9m to 7.6m 11 -- 7.5m 7.6m Comments: Domestic vehicle sales are expected to soften after an extremely strong pace during the spring and early summer. The combined 14.5 million rate expected in August reflects continued consumer demand, but rising interest rates may discourage some purchases due to more costly financing. Additionally, some popular models may be starting to become scarce with the end of the model year. -- National Association of Purchasing Managers Index for August Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 NAPM 55.0 53.0 to 55.0 17 -- 53.4 57.0 Comments: The NAPM index is expected to recover some of its July decline, rebounding to 55.0. The index continues to reflect manufacturing improvement and follows an increase in the Philadelphia Fed index. The prices-paid index will be watched as closely as the production and orders components, as analysts watch for inflation in the recovering sector. -- Construction Spending for July (percent change) Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 Construction 0.5% -0.5% to 1.0% 13 -- +0.5% -1.4% Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise 0.5% in the July report, but higher interest rates may begin to take their toll on the industry ahead as both home and commercial mortgages become more costly. -- Leading Indicator for July (percent change) Wednesday, September 1 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 Lead Index 0.3% 0.1% to 0.3% 13 -- +0.3% +0.3% Comments: The leading index is expected to rise 0.3% in July, on trend with recent months as new orders posted a strong showing and money supply was again a positive contributor. -- Jobless Claims for week ended August 28 (change/level in thousands) Thursday, September 2 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug28 Aug21 Aug14 New Claims +7/290 -5/278 to +12/295 9 -- -5/283 +5/288 Comments: Claims are expected to have risen 7,000 to 290,000 in the August 28 week, after two offsetting reports. While claims are beginning move higher, the low level still indicates labor market tightness, a concern for Fed watchers. -- Factory Orders for July (percent change) Thursday, September 2 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 Mfg Orders +2.0% +0.4% to +2.4% 16 -- +0.7% +0.4% Comments: Durable goods orders rose a surprise 3.3% in July on widespread gains in all of the components. Nondurable goods likely posted a more modest showing than their 1.2% rise in June, leaving factory orders up 2.0%. -- Nonfarm Productivity for 2nd Qtr, Revised (ann rate % change) Thursday, September 2 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses 2Q99r 2Q99a 1Q99 Productivity +0.8% -0.8% to +1.5% 13 -- +1.3% +3.6% Unit Labr Cost +4.3% +4.0% to +4.4% 8 -- +3.8% +0.8% Comments: Nonfarm productivity is expected to be revised downward to a 0.8% rise in the second quarter from the original 1.3% estimated increase, as GDP was lowered from 2.3% to only 1.8%. Unit labor costs, however, are expected to be revised upward to a worrisome 4.3%. -- Nonfarm Payrolls for August (change in thousands) Friday, September 3 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Payrolls +215k +165k to +275k 17 -- +310k +273k Jobless Rate 4.2% 4.1% to 4.4% 17 -- 4.3% 4.3% Mfg Payrolls +5k -20k to +25k 9 -- +31k -36k Avg Wkly Hrs 34.5 34.4 to 34.7 12 -- 34.5 34.5 Hrly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 15 -- +0.5% +0.4% Comments: Payrolls are expected to rise 215,000 in August after two strong months, but still in line with the recent trend. Manufacturing payrolls are expected to post their second straight increase, although just 5,000, while total average hours are expected to hold steady at 34.5. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% in August, on trend with recent months, while the unemployment rate moves back down to an extremely low 4.2%.