To: Peter V who wrote (44224 ) 8/27/1999 9:46:00 PM From: Craig Gordon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50808
Sometimes I see so clearly. Picking the top at 35 to 37 was easy, I could clearly see it as I saw the previous top of 31 when Cube was at 17. I can clearly see Cube at 25. In the past I thought Cube would stop at 24 to 25. Right now I don't know. I can't see it clearly. Cube could blast down to 17, and that scares me. Maybe the fear I feel is a buy signal, maybe not. It is usually best to buy when everyone is selling because you can name your price, and sell when everyone is buying. If Cube can hold 25 and rebound I don't think it can make it past 45. There is still too much overhead supply. Before I thought it would go to 50 but it won't be able to. It won't have enough time or strength. If I decide to buy more cube when it falls, maybe I'll buy some puts to cover my butt. I hate to buy options because I always loose. But the same thing goes for auto or life insurance too. The problem that I wrestle with is that as everyday goes by and new information becomes available like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, we are closer and closer to a recession, a deep recession and some very scary times. Things have been so good for so long that the whole world is asleep or at the very least overdosed on melatonin. The market will eventually wake up to the fact that by the time the 2 fed interest rate hikes kick in we will be getting slammed by the Y2K bug. Our economy runs on petroleum. We will be very short of petroleum by February and this will cause the recession. (the only reason I say recession is that Greenspan will flood the economy with money and lower the interest rates and bail out some weak players, otherwise I'd say depression)I see crude oil at $30 per barrel and gas lines at the stations. Gas at $2.00 per gallon - in America. Lots of bad news here and around the world. Cube trades within the overall market environment. Since Cubes sales and earnings growth (past) hasn't demonstrated big percentage gains, Cube will be caught up in this rip tide that will pull Cube down. Only the top top quality stocks will have a chance not to be slaughtered. While my crystal ball on Cube is foggy I can clearly see the blood in the streets. We will be lucky with a 15% drop. More likely it will be 30%. Probably an 8600 dow by the end of February. Forewarned is forearmed. The future belongs to those who prepare for it. Good luck. And yes I am long a boatload of crude, which is available at bargain prices before labor day. After that you won't be able to touch it.