To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (6960 ) 8/27/1999 10:08:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987
Sure, handsets have to be up to date designs, so they won't produce them too soon. But when somebody orders a handset, they know what they'll be ordering. These 'orders' seem very indefinite. I think an order is an order when it is irrevocably placed and cash is guaranteed either by payment in advance for dodgy customers or LOC from a bank or some sort of guarantee, or by the customer being a good credit risk. The 'orders' we have seen seem to be flimsy and might or might not be followed through by either the buyer or supplier. As a result, we might have 10,000 handsets connected by December. Now we have this from a North American retailer <"Commercial service will start in early 2000. GMPCS expects to have operational demo units available late this year, but has targeted February 1st as a start date for commercial service. > That's a start date. Another is 12 March. Another is 1 April. This is all in the year 2000. We need orders for 6m x $1200 = $7bn to fill the first constellation. That is a lot of handsets. 10,000 here and 40,000 there is near enough to nothing. My question 'where is the money?' is not to suggest it isn't around or possible to get it, but to know just who is holding the cash. Has Qualcomm been paid yet? Part payment? Incentive payments for early production? 20% per month discount for delayed delivery? I know there is heaps of money around in the Service Providers and Globalstar to buy handsets, but it has to be in the right place with the right contracts to get the handsets moving. Fear of lack of demand is the only reason to give such tiny orders for handsets. If demand is believed to be huge, then orders and incentives for handset production would be huge. I'd rather not do cross my fingers and hope, shut my eyes and trust the management. That's what Iridium shareholders did. And ICO. I even heard that one of the thread participants here [djane!!! Silly boy] bought some speculative ICO a week or so ago. Maurice