To: d:oug who wrote (39716 ) 8/27/1999 10:33:00 PM From: d:oug Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116844
bubblemania + chastised + psychopaths + rinky dink fashion = obscene Charles Peabody - Greenspan Acknowledges Option as Financial Engineering Tool Date: 8/27/99 8:12:16 PM EST From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com To: dougak Le Metropole members, Charles Peabody has served commentary at the Kiki Table entitled, "Greenspan Acknowledges Options as a Financial Engineering Tool." "Is it possible that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is actually getting serious about reining in this financial asset bubble? I don?t know. But, his move to raise the discount rate as well as his commentary in Jackson Hole indicates that his frustrations with "irrational exuberance" may finally be reaching a feverish pitch. I would not take these warnings lightly." As on target as Charles Peabody has been, I would not take him lightly either. He is THE man to follow in the banking analyst world. On Wednesday night, I said the following about the gold and stock markets: "Bottom line: I suggest to you the gold price will now trend up NOW in "rinky dink" fashion with the same "mantra" and the stock market will sell off as the manipulators will dump their stock holdings they bought to prevent a "melt down." I strongly suspect that is what will happen." So far so good. The past two days gold HAS "rinky dinked" up 30 cents and 90 cents and the stock market HAS gone straight down. Now if this continues, I either have the scenario nailed or I am one lucky Irishman. In the spirit of summer time fun, I will go out on a limb to the Cafe a bit further. Here is my take on what has gone on and what is coming: Behind the scenes there has been financial turmoil. We know of the secret banking meeting in Philadelphia about 10 weeks ago. We know of the turmoil because of the widening of the swap spreads, the TED spread, etc; and because of the persistent rumors of some serious problems in the hedge fund community. The rumors about Tiger's financial dilemma just won't go away. One rumor that I had not reported to you yet was that "they were "bailed out" to the tune of many billions of dollars by banking institutions." Tiger's year end is this Monday. They must have done what they had to do by now. If there was this bailout engineered by Alan Greenspan, then Greenspan needed the financial markets to be somewhat calmed until Tiger got out of what it had to liquidate. Greenspan needed the bond, dollar, stock and gold markets to be as relaxed and constructive as possible recently while Tiger (and possibly others) did its thing. So for the short term, let us say Tiger did what it had to do. I alluded to you on Wednesday that Mr. Peter Fisher at the N.Y. Fed and crew had propped up the stock market one more time. This had to be done to facilitate the "bailout" process for Tiger. At the same time, the "gold cartel" needed to bash down the gold market during this period for a myriad of reasons - Tiger being one; as we have been told they have borrowed an obscene amount (10 million ounces) and are short. With the Tiger problem handled as best possible, Greenspan now has to tackle "bubblemania." Publicly, the United States is being chastised by highly regarded former politicians in Japan and Germany for allowing "psychopaths" to have taken over our stock market. Greenspan is feeling the zing and he knows they are right. Thus he decides to act. First - the discount rate increase and now this calculated address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every word was put in his speech for a specific reason. They are going to let the stock market go down now. As I said on Wednesday: "it is that simple." If that occurs, it will be just one more bit of anecdotal evidence that the N.Y. Fed has its hands in effecting the markets to a degree that few understand. Let us see how this all pans out. Meanwhile back at the gold ranch, "Hannibal Lechter" and crew have been playing the specs like a finely tuned violin. They continue to flush out the short "black box" specs by turning technical systems bullish and then the "Hannibals" sell - once a good many tech specs have bought. When the specs get good and short, the "Hannibals" buy. Today's CFTC Commitment of Trader Report reveals that a week ago the specs were net short 35,000 contracts. The market broke and now the report reveals they were short 59,000 contracts as of last Tuesday and the open interest has gone up thousands of contracts since then so the specs are even more short than that now. That means the "Hannibal Cannibals" can take the gold market up again. There is more however. The other whisper that won't go away is about Britain altering its gold sale policy in some way that will have a positive effect on the gold price. Tony Blair is feeling the heat big time on this one. I am sure he needs a face saving way out of this hornet's nest. This has been covered in great detail by Midas, so no sense going in to that again. Suffice to say that if Tony Blair takes action of some sort and the gold price puts in a good rally, both he and his Labour Party will look like "the good guys." The embarrassment about how the Bank of England gold sale was conducted will fade. If gold is then bashed again, the poor African countries that have been so negatively affected by the drop in the gold price will then have to blame someone else. With the Tiger program over with for the moment and Greenspan swinging into action, the next couple of weeks would be the time for an announcement of that sort to hit the wires. Of course, if that does happen, it will just be one more example of how this is all orchestrated. To add to the intrigue, the highly regarded Dwight Anderson left Tiger to work with the savvy Paul Tudor Jones. I reported to you yesterday that Paul Tudor Jones' copper broker bought 7000 to 8000 "260" gold calls yesterday. Could this have been the work of Dwight Anderson who knows what I am presenting to you is correct? Hard to say, but it fits into my scenario anyway. On a market note - the price of oil rallied sharply on the close today and the bonds hit stops on the close to finish below key support. After years of experience with this, I do not subscribe to the idea that it is not significant because of the light summer day volume on a Friday. The action in the oil market is bullish and the action in the bond market is bearish. It seems to be the only way the bond market rallies now if the stock market is trashed. The scenario for the price of gold is very bullish. The "gold cartel" might even relax the $2 rule for awhile. That is a stretch, but maybe. Even the rumored short gold position of Tiger will be OK as much of their borrowings (reported) were done at $25 to $30 higher gold prices. This is the way I see it. Should be fun to see if this all pans out in the days and weeks to come. Le Metropole Caf‚ All the best, Bill Murphy Le Patron LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.comlemetropolecafe.com