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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting SPY for fun and profit. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Nehrboss who wrote (140)	8/28/1999 12:40:00 AM
From: fut_trade	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 346

...if there was a model that was reliable I am more concerned about the reliability of the creator than the model itself. Models in general are optimized for a given subset of past data. Predictions for buy or sell are then made based on extrapolation using a set of "optimized rules" to analyze current market data. If a somewhat new phenomenon causes a market crash or alters the behavior of the market, the models won't do a very good job at giving buy and sell signals. Just by the fact that there are two models which currently give different signals right now is somewhat of a concern. However, if both models suddenly give sell signals, it may be a useful indication that the market may be unstable.