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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allan Harris who wrote (8176)	8/28/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

John Gault wouldn't write that. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Allan Harris who wrote (8176)	8/28/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Allan, I for one agree that the Dow could well hit 20-30,000 in the next 5-7 years, but think Kudlow is a bit aggressive. On the other hand that doesn't mean the market will go straight up. I think that the market could well take a dip in October, or we could have a brief bear market or correction on the way to that goal. I expect to see businesses and consumers building extra inventories prior to Y2K "just in case". Following Y2K they will work that inventory off. This could cause strong sales for the balance of the year, followed by slight weakness early next year. Since the market usually sees about 6 months out, it could react to this minor "recession" at any time. Since I believe that any "recession" will be brief, a major pullback in the market will be an excellent buying opportunity. One other thing is that even if the market does go to 30,000 it doesn't imply that "this time it's different", or that it won't have a fiery end. In fact the truth is exactly the opposite; the higher the market goes, the more likely that the ultimate end will be fiery. My personal projection calls for a correction in September-October, followed by a continuation of the bull to 30,000 or so by 2005-2006. Somewhere along there the market will fall back to 18,000, rally back about 5000 points, then fall back to about 5000 in about 2011. Of course my projection tomorrow may be different. <vbg> Carl