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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (7019)	8/28/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Sam, There is pretty strong evidence of some strength in the DD market right now, especially at the low end desktop. Seagate's U-4 is a major beneficiary of it. Prices have stabilized around $ 75 bucks for the 4.3 GB PSI models. Furthermore there is a shortage of product albeit this may be a very temporary situation. WDC seems to be the one caught flat footed and there is speculation this could give the dark horse Conner Technology a chance or give some boost to Samsung. Price stability is also apparent in the 6 GB and 8 GB capacities. The big question is whether this will last very long and whether or not there is going to be a transition to the single sided single platter version later in the year. I am going to guess this is a short lived situation and that we may be seeing the buying season moved up in time and a possible Y2K related slow down later in the quarter. Seagate will close out this quarter much better then originally anticipated. I understand some distributors are howling because they can't get enough. That is because all the DD guys have been so understandably reluctant to build up inventories. In any case, I think the sector is good for a pop here as most investors will see the stories of renewed vigor as a "recovery" . As such I have been considering venturing out of my retreat with primarily just holding Seagate. And a little bit of very painful Maxtor). Warning however, without any major consolidation, I think we will likely head right for the excess inventory situation that continues to plague the industry. This is a short term buy situation IMO. I will probably buy Quantum again and look for a chance to sell the Maxtor. HMTT and RDRT may enjoy a pop but I am scared to death of them. But I think there will be a quiet year end with some levels of spending resuming after the hangovers wear off. Best, Stitch