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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (5578)	8/29/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: chaz	Respond to of 54805

Q remains the runaway majority of my position, but RMBS is so impressive, in my view, that it deserves a commitment. Here's a very good summary of the situation from Uncle West, our leader's relative who runs the RMBS thread. "the memory technology for the foreseeable future." earlier this year intel invested $100 million in samsung and $500 million in micron to speed the transition to rambus rdram. intel has the greatest research labs in the world. after exhaustive testing of rambus drdram (rdram-d), sldram and ddrdram, intel selected rambus. the sldram consortium folded. sdram and ddr(if it gets to market) will do the same when two things happen...sufficient quantities of rdram are being produced to displace sdram in all pc's, and intel provides a rambus chipset for servers. (this chipset is scheduled to sample this year.) remember it took 2 years to complete the transition to sdram 100. four dram mfrs are in volume rdram production now...four more coming on line this year. the remaining seven are expected to consolidate or go out of business. it takes a moment for the graph in the link below to load...notice that intel expects to convert 100% of chipsets to rambus rdam in less than two years. the first of these, camino, is scheduled for release sep 26/27. dell and cpq are expected to announce rambus pc's and workstations on the 27th. in oct, intel releases coppermine designed to get rambus in a wider range of pc's and laptops. acer announced recently that they will have a line of rambus pc's for the affordable pc market this year. ibm announced in june that they will produce their own rambus rdrams. ibm expected to switch next year. even amd said they plan to switch to rmbs next year. sony will announce on sep 17, at the tokyo games show, that they are switching to rambus for playstation II. sony and toshiba invested $1 billion dollars this year in rambus rdram production. with this kind of committment i expect to see rambus across the entire line of sony and toshiba products.(toshiba is the world's largest laptop producer) this week intel will make an announcement on pc133. i expect them to support pc133 as an interim replacement for sdram during the larger transition to rmbs. i think everyone except the uninformed new shorts expects this. the surprise will be if intel denies pc133 any support. here is the link...give the chart a moment to load. (I've omitted the chart....it's the same one I posted earlier and takes a while to load.) In truth, RMBS earnings ramp isn't expected until Spring '00 and it may be an up and down ride until then. If shares can be picked up on those dips, I feel the holder will be an eventual and long time winner.