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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (8074)	8/28/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 78821

CHB I was very wrong, and right, on. The way I saw it, there were forces occurring that I could not possibly be the first to know about. If I'm in clinic all day, I just won't know when the sh** hits the fan. So I just let the chart dictate. I knew it was more contrarian than anything. No tangible book and debt isn't bad if things turn around even a little bit. But no way was I going to hold once it made new lows. That was a strong psychological barrier that got blown off its hinges. An interesting thing about CHB is that as long as I was long, I was definitely biased. From the sidelines, something cleared and I realized that no matter how good the demand for these homes, barriers to entry are low and sooner or later supply would create a soft market. I'm sure Clayton will survive, but it's a vicious business. I think Fair Isaac is another similar problem, as is Mattel. Fair Isaac has been very steady over many years, and sports excellent numbers. But if all new home buying, car buying, and credit card issuing declines significantly, will lenders still be buying into FICO? Will it become even more important? Maybe so, but maybe the software won't sell as well anyway. If it really is the end of an era at Fair Isaac, I suspect that it will break through the bottom of its years-long trading range on the strength of insider leaks. The stock has a history of reacting correctly in the day or two before significant news. I'd bet it was happening again and get out quick. Mattel is simply a contrarian play with a lot of good brands that may or may not be becoming obsolete. I'm betting it isn't and feel the odds are on my side. But if it is, someone else will know before me. The support will be busted, and I'll end up selling my Mattel to Jim at 20 or so. Mike