To: 10K a day who wrote (75676 ) 8/29/1999 1:06:00 AM From: H James Morris Respond to of 164687
>>NEW YORK - These days, it's not much of a surprise when a company's quarterly profits beat the estimates of Wall Street analysts. In fact, the pressure to top estimates is so high that investors often penalize companies that merely match the forecasts. So as the second-quarter reporting season reaches its close, perhaps there are more relevant questions: Who beat estimates by the widest margin? How did they do it? And after this past week, when the Federal Reserve deemed inflation nicely under control, can companies extend their streak? As of yesterday, 495 of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index had reported their second-quarter earnings. Thanks to the continued strength of the U.S. economy and improvement in most Asian nations, profits are up 14.8 percent from the second quarter of 1998. According to First Call/Thomson Financial, 65 percent of those companies beat analysts' estimates. Over the past five years, an average of 56 percent of the companies beat estimates. By contrast, 12 percent of the companies fell short of analysts' predictions. That's a marked improvement from the 26 percent average over the past five years. Chuck Hill, First Call's research director, views the positive surprises with a note of skepticism. The quarterly earnings releases are the final play in a long, complicated game between companies, analysts and investors. Companies can, and often do, guide analysts to estimates they know they'll be able to beat. Overall, Hill said, technology companies turned in the biggest surprises, ending up about 6 percent ahead of analysts' estimates. Health-care and transportation companies lagged, but only because many companies came in right on target.Analysts expect corporate profit growth to continue growing strongly. Mitchell Held, equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, said this past week he now expects the S&P 500 companies to earn $50 a share in 1999, up 12.8 percent from 1998. Alan Skrainka, market strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, is also highly optimistic, estimating 22.4 percent profit growth in the third quarter and 21.3 percent growth in the fourth. This past week, the Dow ended 10.44 points lower even after coasting to record closes on Monday and Wednesday. A loss of 108.28 yesterday left the blue-chip index at 11,090.17. The Nasdaq composite index fared much better, ending the week with a gain of 110.57 points. It fell 15.72 yesterday to close at 2,758.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 11.66 for the week, although it fell 13.74 yesterday to close at 1,348.27.<<