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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (8082)	8/29/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: Pendretti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78821

My biggest holding: HDWY, a true value play. This company (by the way, don't look into the thread, not active)is a real value play. They have grown this company considerably, look at the growth in EPS and revenues. EPS for this year expected to be 0,52 and for next year 0,62. The company is valued now at 10 times this year earnings and about 8 times next years earnings. The company is growing about 15-20% each year. Soros (through White Rock Capital) has a holding of about 11% in the company. The stock is a take over candidate, the CEO is a winner. I think this stock could be taken out around USD 10,- soon, otherwise the downside risk is limited, only when there are fears of a recession the stock could go down. The problem, the company is too small to have analysts cover the stock more and give strong buy ratings for it. Matt Roswell of Legg Mason is enthousiastic about this company but is not allowed to give a strong buy rating because of the size. The stock has been trading above 12 last year, so look into it. Another company, not a real value play but a take over play is HAIN. Look at the story about Kellog who wants to expand in the health food business. I think something is in the works here and I expect the company to be taken out within a few weeks above USD 30,-. These are just my predictions. Do your own DD. If you have any questions just let me know. I like this board because it is looking into real value plays. I will keep coming back here. IDTC is also a real value play, remember that they own 58% of NTOP. If you calculate with a NTOP price of USD 40 (conservative, look where it is now), this would reflect a price of USD 28,5 for IDTC without their own core business. A conservative price for their own business is worth about USD 15, so that would make a total of around USD 44. The market is not looking at it now that way, I had several discussions about it with one of my brokers. I am a portfolio manager BTW and manage portfolios worth USD 400 mio. Take care, Rene.

To: Madharry who wrote (8082)	8/29/1999 5:13:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78821

IDTC. Ouch. Yes, I own it. And it and I are having quite a fight. The stock was mentioned here as a value stock at about 12-13 or so, I think. I've bought more on scale up. At some point I came to realize I own way more than I should. And that I don't really know what's what with the company, and I can't find anything to hold on to that I think or thought provided a margin of safety. So I sold bunches and missed the latest rally. A couple of times recently, I've tried to trade the stock, and that has not worked out well. I do believe that there are some stocks that no matter what one does or when, the fates are against you. And I've found IDTC to be one such stock for me. Plus, I know it's really very dangerous to get sucked into the enthusiasm of a particular thread--and on the IDTC thread I've succumbed. I need to be more aware of such temptations. And to consider Vegas, the dice tables, more carefully as an alternative to my short term trades. (And I'm serious.) Anyway, that's it for me with IDTC. Shares of IDTC I have, I'll hold for a while. (PS: admire your courage and convictions and control with IDTC. VERY NICE job there Armin!) Have all of my shares of THQI, and holding also CNS (Consolidated Stores-KB toys). Sorry I didn't follow you in selling and rebuying THQI. Nice moves you made there. If TOY comes down a bit more (below book value), I will likely add more to my very small position. I am thinking still of my last post here regarding TOY and ETYS. E-toys now with a market cap. of $5.3B and 307 employees vs. $3.7B and 70,000 employees for TOY. Etys is a short; TOY is a buy. Just can't believe all these companies can be profitable with their toy operations: DIS, AMZN, ETYS, etc. Regarding MWY- just wanted to trim my position-- take a little profit to offset some losses elsewhere; I'm not concerned with current reported profits-- future for MWY still looks good to me. Paul