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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (5161)	8/30/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: Cap_Loss_Cfwd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

>>About 400,000 auctions are closing per day on eBay, about 70 percent of them successful.<< Doug, how did you figure this out. Based on personal unscientific experience on Ebay I would say that a very small percentage of the big ticket items are successfully sold (defining that as over $5,000).

To: Doug Fowler who wrote (5161)	8/30/1999 9:31:00 AM
From: mrknowitall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

Doug - the "superb business model" doesn't lend itself to high-end things, particularly mass-market (i.e., non-collectible) vehicles. The adoption of the local-market capability will help, but these kinds of items really open the door for manipulating ebay (or any other auction site) into a glorified internet classified's listing. I know they are aiming for bigger things and the new site and new alliances are attempts to adjust to the present realities of big buck things, but the percentage of people willing to buy those kinds of items isn't growing anywhere near the rate ebay needs to do the triple-digit growth. If you haven't noticed it, go to a real auction just to get a feel for the demographics of the people who bid on high-end items - as you move up that pyramid, fewer and fewer of them are internet-savvy or comfortable with the idea of bidding on something over the internet. I'm curious about how many viewers they have that have never registered and whether or not that metric has changed over time. Niche communities of collectors will adopt technology for their own advantage, but those segments aren't growing fast enough, either - I don't see a doubling of antique car collectors each year, nor do I see them abandoning the collector's live auction circuit. As for used cars, given the choice between bidding on a car bargain on ebay and going down to one of the big used-car outlets, the choice would be easy for me (it's hard to test-drive something over the 'net!). So, IMHO, ebay has to make its target growth through consumer demand (buyers) in the lower-dollar marketplace, and I still contend they are not up to the task on a system basis, and therefore, cannot take the risk of promoting the site to more and more people until they are. October-November is going to be the acid test for the present system, I believe - the question becomes: How many auctions they can handle before shoppers lose patience and give up? Mr. K.