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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: STLMD who wrote (4342)	8/30/1999 7:30:00 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15703

Steve, Can you prescribe novacaine? bob

To: STLMD who wrote (4342)	8/30/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Hi Stephen, <<Is this a reasonable probability given the nature of the structure or just a remote possibility given the seismic data on hand?>> Reasonable, I don't know. But possible, definitely. Do not forget that there are huge "gaps" in all 2D seismic data and statistically development well drilling carries only about an 80% success rate (and that includes development drilling of much shallower and less complex targets !!). ELH is a very complex foldbelt structure. There will be several dry holes drilled during its development. BKP#1 may be successful. I pray that it is. But, ... <<Is there any precedent for this in a large structure such as ELH to have such a difference in sand quality within the same structure?>> If you were to examine a turbidite deposit in outcrop you would see how very complex such "deposits" are. Such "sands" are anything but uniform. Just as everyone was so pleased with better than expected reservoir quality at ELH #1, there will be future disappointments as to the sand quality encountered in "some" of the development wells yet to be drilled on the structure. Perhaps not with BKP #1, but ... <<Can seismic data define......>> Seismic data can be just as imperfect as those who "interpret" it. While that data provides a valuable and useful "picture" of the reservoir there is much that remains unknown and\or speculative. If seismic was truly definitive, the current targets would have been drilled many years ago. <<This in my mind would only create a delay, not a D & A. I am of the assumption to the best of my limited understanding that drilling with Bel#1 was off directionally and the whipstocking was a deliberate redirection move to enter the Temblor.>> I have to view the missing of a drill target as an inaccurate interpretation of the target else they would "correct" the deviation as it arises so as to not miss their target in the first place. Should BKP#1 not hit the target, the JV will surely evaluate the merits of a redirection and second attempt for the target. But, the market may\will not accept such an event as forgivingly as you and I. <<Thus my estimate of 95% probability of BKP#1 success.>> I truly would like to believe your assessment, but.... <<BTW, can this rig drill faster than the others, and what things can this do that the others can not.>> Yes, theoretically, the "BIG RIG" should "drill faster" than the others. But, in practice it may not as there are just so many factors besides horsepower that impact the time to TD. I don't know enough about the differences between the 3 rigs to be able to comment appropriately to your question and besides I am NOT at all "expert" in drilling matters. Sorry. Stephen, my primary message is simply that BKP#1 is not a guaranteed success story. It is a development well and roughly 20% of all development wells drilled are D&A. If BKP#1 happens to be D&A, it will NOT change the size of the reserve which has already been discovered. It will only delay the development of that reserve and slightly increase the cost of its development. Some investors will react to a D&A as though it is the end of the play. It won't be. JMHOBWDIK. Well, time to go and cut some grass (with a pitching wedge). <gg> Later, Grayhairs