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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8237)	8/30/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: * FED Watch * - "Watch These Reports for the Fed's Next Move": smartmoney.com

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8237)	8/30/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally re ..Goldman's Cohen forecast a third rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year, probably in October. She expects stock prices will keep going up, though... I can't imagine that an Oct rate increase is priced into the market considering everybody was just yapping that the Fed is done for the year. One thing that always worries me about Bob making a timely call with the market either rising or near the top is the market right now seems very attuned and ready to react to any overly strong or otherwise negative fundamental news that theoretically might help turn the model negative. In the current market I wonder if we're already going to get hit significantly by the time we get word of a sell signal. I guess I'll stay pretty comfortable with my current moderately hedged position while awaiting further developments. If no call ever comes and the market takes off to 28- 30X earnings or on earnings expansion I'll badly underperform, if we move to marginal new highs and a sell signal comes I'll give up a little, if a sell comes in the next few months and is correct or the market tanks and Bob misses the call I'll be in reasonable shape. Marc

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (8237)	8/30/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Wally: I have still not confirmed that Cohen said that a rate hike would "probably" occur in October. The article you cited was not a direct quote but rather a reporter's spin. I still believe she was of the opinion that a rate hike "may" occur in October. She did say that she thought it was discounted by the market at this point. I am afraid that I do not see it as being discounted by either the stock or the bond market now. Sure would like to see a total transcript. Quite frankly, I am perplexed by her statement(s) and if she were not such a smart lady I would say she was a tad complacent in what I heard from her in this interview.