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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39773)	8/30/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: scotty	Respond to of 116972

George, I hope you are right. I'm thinking the miners will crater just like last summer so I can pick up some cheap NEM....A nose dive in the broad market could sink the miners. NEM at $14 soon?.....scotty

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39773)	8/30/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116972

If this is a final final shakeout in gold stocks it sure is small. XAU: 66.470 -0.420 -0.628% That probably would take the form of a false downside breakout by the XAU followed by a huge reversal. ok, sure... but if it breaks down, it'll most likely to always come up again. But that more to the nature of the hedgers. Under any breakout the larger group does not respond with an equal rise. That is where the deviation between the broader gold stocks and the hedgers exist. This is to say that:"The hedgers have a higher growth rate while the pog is falling or neutral" and the XAU/GOX index display this quite readily. As the GOX index is an equally weighted index, and the XAU is a growth related index. So the ratio of the two shows the growth of the XAU hedgers versus the none growth of the XAU hedgers. members.home.net I believe you'll find the dispersion growth rate 14% per year compounded. Which mean you can effectively short the GOX, and go long the XAU without much risk. Hutch PS: No I still see gold hitting a short term low in OCT 1-14, and starting a bull run in Nov 1-14/99 {should last 6 months}. Till then I expect lower lows.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39773)	8/30/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116972

George, is the pressure on XAU today not just the effect of pressure on S&P500?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39773)	8/30/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116972

< Looks like we might be getting that final shakeout in gold stocks I have warned about.> What type of a final shakeout in gold stocks are you talking about? The XAU bottomed out on August 31, 1998 at around the 48 level. That was the shakeout. We're about 35% higher almost a year later? A move to the 60 or 57 level hardly qualifies as a shakeout. Do you see the XAU closing substantially below the 48 level? Now that may qualify as a shakeout. I wish you would clarify what you mean here by shakeout, George? A day when the XAU falls 2.5% when gold is up a little bit and the US stock market sells off is, indeed, a little disappointing from the standpoint of a gold investor; but it hardly qualifies as a shakeout or the beginning of a shakeout. The Gold Bulls on this thread have been through a lot worse than days like this. In comparison to May 7, 1999, today was like heaven. We know and have experienced what a Bear Market is. We also know that the tables are about to be turned soon in our favor. Be patient.