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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Malloy who wrote (28028)	8/30/1999 3:00:00 PM
From: Richard Nehrboss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77398

John, Thanks for your post. Without getting into your methodology, I have two issues with your analysis: 1) "Cisco's value also depends on the minimum rate of return an investor will accept" Maybe I don't understand your wording, but this sounds remarkable like the greater fool theory. It seems to me that "value" is disjoint from what I'm willing to accept. I wish the 43' sloop I was selling was worth $650k, and apparently if I'm only willing to accept that figure, that's what it's worth? 2) In your analysis, you give forecasts of 44% growth tapering to 28%. I'm not sure what your graph looks like, but I assume it's somewhat smooth, and yields something like 35% average for the next five years. As I've indicated, the professionals that make there living from putting their arms around this are projected a 28% average for the next 5 years. I assume this brings your $69 fair value figure down to the high 40's. I do respect your effort to quantify the value that I've always had trouble with, "terminal value", in valuing stocks with the discounted future earnings model. Richard