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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (75771)	8/30/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

does Abby Joseph hold any amzn... down 10

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (75771)	8/30/1999 3:29:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Respond to of 164684

>Abby Joseph says the third hike is priced in. What else do you expect her to say? We can all see the hypocrisy in the sell side analysts. Three days ago they ALL said : "no more rate hikes." Then when greenspan said "watch out" on friday, now they're saying "Um, I meant one more rake hike, but dont worry, we expected it." It's just like stocks and earnings estimates. The brokers have discovered that even if the companies arent making money, if they can announce that the losses were no surprise, it is somehow good news.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (75771)	8/30/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Don't Fight the Fed. In 1987 there were a series of hikes which were blown off by the equity markets. The Fed would tighten, and the stocks would rally anyway. In October 1987 reality caught up with the markets. The rate hikes in 1999 are not nearly as large as 1987. But both times in '99, the bond and equity markets have rallied on the hikes, with the markets believing each interest rate increase was "the last one". I am 100% cash because I do not believe that a third hike has been factored into the markets. I believe the first two rate increases have been ignored by the markets, and I think either the third or fourth is going to cause a decline of greater than 15%. The markets are too risky for me. JMHO, but I would be interested in hearing what others think about this. It is a great topic for discussion. Tom D