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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (50080)8/30/1999 4:22:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, Good man- There's lots of good plays in the E&P Sector without profiting over the blood of innocents. Matthew 25:31-46 called "The Judgement of the Nations" makes it very clear what happens to those who do just that....

My guess is that the strong profits levels of companies in the S&P 500 will prevent any big market collapses. Also Greenspan needs to raise rates further now in order to avoid upcoming Y2K issues and also impacting the Year 2000 Presidential elections. His hands will be tied in terms of any mor eriases shortly-so it's now or never....

So my guess is one more rate rise and then interest rate silence for the six following months. About two months ago when gold prices dove, that suggested (if you beleive this corollation) that interest rates will begin falling 180 days ahead of that gold price falloff.

If true then interest rates should begin to tail off in about 3-4 months...So maybe long term bonds will shortly be a good investment. And profit margins/cash flow in E&P companies just look great moving forward. Hmmm energy/OS stocks and bonds- strange bedfellows but maybe a profitable combination....



To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (50080)8/30/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, I have tremendous respect for Belkin, but he sure has one hell of a lot of company in expecting doomsday.

quote.cboe.com

These OEX numbers are demonstrating phenomenal bearishness on the the part of options traders. Some of the put/call ratios in open interest and volume are extraordinary. If it's 1987 deja vu all over again, then it will be the most anticipated and planned for bear market since "The Fall of Man"

Belkin may be right, but usually this many option traders aren't. It usually pays to bet against these guys. These are a lot closer to reliable bottom numbers than they are to top. These numbers are reflecting "PRIMAL FEAR".

JMVVHO