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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: D. K. G. who wrote (1659)9/1/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: HeyRainier  Respond to of 1720
 
Denis,

Thank you! I actually caught your message right before I left work a few nights back, so I was able to pull up a research report and review it on the way back. It does appear from the voice of the analyst that a turnaround is taking place.

As with most firms with bullish analysts, however, the bullish notes I read came from one firm that has either participated as a market-maker, underwriter, or some other form that has benefited from a favorable relationship with UNFY. Ultimately, such conflicts of interest should be noted when reading these reports, as a precaution.

With that said, UNFY appears to be performing well due to good expense management and increasing demand for its products.

Technically, however (and they almost always never have a technical opinion), we appear to be in an environment that is more prone to taking profits. I would imagine that as we near Y2K, that propensity would tend to increase, potentially driving volatility levels higher going forward.

The price has been flat for quite a while--almost 8 months. If there were indeed unprecedented improvements in the company's fundamentals, however, I would have expected to have those qualities reflected in the company's price via a new all-time high. For as long as it remains range-bound, however (and who knows how long that can be), I will likely remain just a curious observer. Let's see whether that recent downtrend breakout was a head fake or not (it's still not clear the 66% Speed/Resistance line). The signal it displays could be very significant going forward.

Rainier