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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (24180)	8/30/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Matthew L. Jones: You have become a good addition to this thread. Thanks for your contributions and you do put it out there. It is always hard to argue with statistics. So, I will just put forward this one comment: The data you used to produce your statistical probabilities was all produced during a "bull" Market. Food for thought...<gg> Regards, LG

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (24180)	8/30/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Matthew, does your analysis take seasonality into account? I would think that the season as well as the time of month would have some role to play in any statistical analysis. For my money, I went long today betting that the Sew 3-day count was working, the cycles point up into the 14th of September, and a new month starts in a few days. I also observe that, of late, people seem to be piling into the market ahead of classic uptrend events (e.g., post-holiday rallies, like labor day weekend).