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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom offenbach who wrote (15021)	8/30/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Solid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Tom, <Imagine 10 years into the future and assume ubiquity in access availability and speed. The value of providers of this access will be dwarfed by the value of companies which enable efficiencies from this access.> 'Ubiquity in access availability and speed.' That is one heck of an assumption. T is 100+ BILLION into infrastructure and solidly partnered with ATHM. I do not see AOL now or in the near future getting a free ride on cable's start page. How do you see AOL keeping their prime window location once people, en mass, view the advantage of cable through Excite@HOME? And like you point out, click over to AOL and maybe you lose speed due to infrastructure incongruities. What AOL pays for, IF they can afford to, is like a good real estate purchase, location, location, location. They get to be on the start page. Without this, how many folks are going to stay with AOL? Already TJ has stated that about 80% of former AOL users switch to ATHM and do not go back after experiencing the service of ATHM. Add a new Excite on steroids and its a wrap. Remember the 'good ole days'? When something was needed it was purchased or bartered for. If you didn't need it why go shopping? Now we shop as a pass time. Image creates desire and desire the compelling 'need' to have whatever is longed for. I am not saying this is good or bad, I am saying, like it or not it is the way "consumers" are being manipulated and developed. With broadband the ability to create 'must have' need will accelerate. Just look around your local landscape to see how material evolution has played out over the past few decades and how 'needs' have metamorphosized. To me the real question is not will yesterdays first out of the block, AOL, be the first of the future because it's now great at Ecommerce, but will it even be around without the access and visibility it may lose to new comers that blow it out of the water like T/ATHM? This is what yihsuen, in post #14994 was alluding to. AOL will fight like the dickens to remain viable, but its fate and future directions/bedfellows may already be near sealed. AOL's 'efficiencies' may be less attractive to investors if cable blasts off as it has the potential to do. And at some point, ATHM will be eclipsed by the next technology too. So it goes. Dial-up may drop to 0$, but cable should be able to command a premium because of what it offers -for a longer period of time. I am sure the Ecommerce side of the equation will allow lowering of sub fees as well in time. How much time does AOL have to make its moves? All things equal your assumption holds water. If all things were equal AOL would not be squawking so loud. I think my analogy still stands. How many had gas for lighting prior to electric? They may have advertised like the snake oil man, had huge accounts and legions of customers, but unless the gas companies bought into the electric companies, they are eating less of the lighting pie. imo. All the best Solid