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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (70367)	8/31/1999 1:34:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573813

Re: "Do you think Cuontimemine will be an overall more powerful processor than the Athlon?" No. I think they will be closely matched with Athlon having a slight lead in FP. The key is manufacturing. EP

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (70367)	8/31/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1573813

Cirrus - <Do you think Cuontimemine will be an overall more powerful processor than the Athlon?> More and more I see the K7 as a niche product with a somewhat Apple-esque cult of followers that will continue to point to the K7 architecture to the exclusion of everything else. From an AMD point of view, the K7 architecture may afford a strong point that should be exploited and followed up with executing a myriad of other line items. There is a small opportunity measured in months that if AMD has its ducks in a row, it could make some serious inroads into Intel's business. .18 should have product in the pipes NOW, and I mean Dresden product. Austin will not 1) be able to support adequate volume levels at .18 to be a serious threat, and 2) until shown otherwise, I believe the dual .18 process strategies will be a bust in the end analysis, providing no advantage, and actually may be a hindrance to a coherent product ramp. I won't even go into Cu on .18 again. I believe that situation will make itself apparent shortly, and there isn't any convincing you all on that subject anyway. However, as we move forward, I am less and less enthralled with AMD's prospects at a coup de Gras. I repeat, K7 may well enjoy a following, but it is my opinion that Intel will survive and continue to grow its business, albeit with a competitor making a showing. From the Intel side, I do not see a serious threat to Intel's manufacturing dominance (read: volume , yields, cost advantage), to Intel's marketing and branding, and to Intel's strength at delivering stable platforms. Coppermine performance should be competitive with K7. I did not say it would beat it in every single benchmark (Kash). In my perfect world, of course it would, but I personally am taking a WC (worse case) approach to this issue. However, I am extremely confident that there will be a slug of high MHz Coppermines spilling out of the pipes in the near term, as well as derivatives such as Cascades. I do not see any serious threat to Intel's server business until late next year at the earliest, and I expect to Intel to see it coming and have an adequate response. I do not see AMD being any serious threat to Intel's enterprise level business; the infrastructure that inspires confidence in IT types is just not there. Mobile is another segment that I expect Intel to both retake the performance and mindshare lead in spades from AMD, even though Geyserville is delayed. Coppermine in Mobile form should trounce K6x. The value segment is game over, Intel, IMHO. Low cost derivatives of Cumine will be out well before any K7 type of low cost option, and be very compelling from a price / performance standpoint. That leaves desktop, where I expect Intel to compete with platform stability, and, if all goes well for Intel process types (:-)), raw MHz performance lead, as well as being competitive in platform performance. I am a broken record. When I first cam on SI ~5 month ago I expounded on the theme that there is more to this business than compelling designs...much more. I believe the next few month will either prove my thesis right or wrong. As a parting thought, good luck to the AMD longs. I really think you're going to need it. And for all of you espousing that Intel and AMD cannot possibly co-exist, it is my opinion that Intel going belly up due to the K7 ain't gonna happen, so better start sharpening your K8 knives, or negotiate a collaboration with VIA, whom evidently we are really scared of, and for good reason, IMHO. They have access to a bottomless capital pool that is to die for. PB