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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ynot who wrote (23273)	8/31/1999 7:40:00 AM
From: Iris Shih	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68358

Ynot, Hlit had a good run yesterday at the end. So I think jdsu, sdli, ocli should reverse soon. Just a guess. But the low volumes worry me. It might be just a blip here. I remember that when those ipos started correcting in June, they were pulled down by low volume too. When there are few buyers, shorts can drive the stocks down as low as they wish in an uncertain market. I agree with Thomas that long bond is the key issue here. Need to watch it closely. On the other hand, end of month window dressing and post labor day rally will provide one more chance for the longs to make some bucks here and there. Just need to pick the right stocks. Iris

To: ynot who wrote (23273)	8/31/1999 8:48:00 AM
From: Bretsky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68358

Ynot, Just curious, but are you a holder of JDSU ? I've been watching it for a few weeks and have been pondering a new buy; just don't know where to get in. Fundamentally, this stock is outstanding, IMO. Best Regards, Bretsky

To: ynot who wrote (23273)	8/31/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68358

ynot, I find that options active has a direct effect on the price about a week before options expiration. Option trader start to row over into options further out or option writers start to buy/sell stock to hedge their positions. Note that professional option writers typical will write put and then sell the stocks short to hedge a portion of the position or they will write calls and then buy a stock to hedge the position. It is all about risk management. Remember they make money if the options expire worthless. The rest of the time options tend to be a reflection of the news or expected movement on the stocks price. Most option writers are good at gauging the short term risk. When I use options activity I tend to use options as a short term contrarian indicator. An increase in put interest when the price is dipping indicates that the writer thinks that the stocks has fallen as far as they think it will go. Similar a call writer will write call options when they think a stock price advance has hit a congestion area. The thing to track is the total number of contract outstanding for the call and puts (the open interest). What is important is the change in open interest. The total number of open contracts typically tells you a lot less. There are some pay services which allow you to download data on open interest every day for individual stock. Hope this helps. Harry