To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7037 ) 8/31/1999 9:11:00 PM From: Waitstill Respond to of 29987
Maurice, whereas you make some valid points, there are three matters to which I would like to draw your attention. First, you seem to have great faith that companies act rationally, and have a firm grip on their bottom line and cost/benefits of doing business in the SHORT term. This has not been my experience (with a few notable exceptions, where the company was carefully controlled and managed.) Most companies will spend money based on some senior manager's projection of increased sales and will accept any technology that an able vendor convinces them (usually on a golf course) will bring them that increase. It then takes several years for them to catch up with whether this is or is not working. Paradoxically, such technology very often does bring increased sales. Maybe because the senior mgr pushes his people harder to justify his decision. Maybe because the customers are impressed with the company's technology. Either way, one has to hope that G* itself has an able sales staff (or at least, good golfers). Second, G* equipment will enable many of the international companies to expand into markets that they cannot reach today, with the same facility they have in the USA. Imagine all those Nikes they can sell to the Sherpers in Katmandu. Third, six million phones will not be sold overnight, and that allows time for a) the technology to change, and b) the price to drop. Not certain, but historically technology in other fields, similar to this, has changed every 18 months, at least. This should give G* time to solve some of its problems, assuming they have a management that is on top of things, and I more or less believe they do, or Bernie would be jumping on them. Just for the record, we got out of G* a short while back, but I have confidence (pretty much) that long term they will be a successful company and am prepared to jump back in when they have overcome what I feel is undoubtedly going to be a hump (or is it a dip). In the meantime, the money is better used elsewhere. At the moment I feel the best way to own G* is through LOR.