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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8119)	9/1/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78817

Michael: A few thoughts fwiw. Bought into ORI about 1 week ago at about levels its at now. Con: bad time in business cycle (but I feel that is reflected in stock price), and some insider selling although at higher levels than currently trading at. Pro's are: 3% relatively safe yield, good balance sheet, price less than book & no debt. Trades at the low end of the P/S, P/B, P/E for this line of businesses and is considered a possible takeover candidate although you can't take that to the bank. Not to say it can't go lower, but I started testing the waters here and will get very aggressive if it drops to the 10-12 range. In terms of retailers, you may want to put JCP on the watch list. Deducting out the Eckerd subsidary and what it should get in a spinoff means you get the business on the cheap.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8119)	9/1/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Mike, I don't know Old Republic, but if they're property/casualty insurer I'd say be careful. I encourage anyone who's looking into P&C insurers to check out what State Farm is doing to defend marketshare. IMHO, it's going to very tough on all players, and I don't think the Street fully recognizes the increasing level of competition. State Farm has lost market share for the past two years to players like Progressive and Geico, and it looks like they're committed to "pain" in the marketplace to defend their turf and to give competitors pause. Rate decreases by State Farm are coming out of the woodworks, and I don't think much of it is due to improved loss performance. Shane