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To: unclewest who wrote (5759)9/1/1999 8:31:00 AM
From: Apollo  Respond to of 54805
 
Thanx for stopping by, UncleWest; I hope this addresses some of the questions on barriers to entry and on the discontinuity induced by Rambus...

going forward, in response to questions about earnings, which should fall straight to the bottom line due to the nature of royalties......

$40 billion in DRAMs in y2K X conservative estimate of Rambus in 33% X 1.7% royalties/ 25 million shares =
~ $8-9/share. Earnings for 1999 are expected at ~ $.30/share. Any questions? <VBG>

Realistically, there are positive and negative intangibles. Negative intangibles are that price of memory chips will fall with increased production, reducing total revenues to Rambus; also, no one expects Rambus to maintain its present P/E of 300, so alot of share price expectation is already built in. Positive intangibles are that the PC market continues to grow with new users and with upgrades by old users, with the most recent growth estimate I saw at 25% this year; that Rambus royalties are > 1.7% for non-PC memory; also, the memory market is ever-widening, with memory in items besides PCs, such as printers, cell phone handsets?, networking equipment, HDTV, and on and on and on. Which of these and many other appliances will benefit from Rambus memory is as yet uncertain.....but the potential is certainly great.

STAN