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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (8312)	9/1/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "Or if Friday's numbers aren't so benign I couldn't think of a better thing for someone looking for an exit point or a guru possibly having to make a bear call than to have the market have rallied to be comfortably within several percent of the highs." I think that it is reasonable to assume (although not certain) that the higher the market goes on any ensuing rally, the greater the chances for a change in investment policy by Brinker all things being equal. Re: " By the way I'm glad I'm still holding my TER and NVLS assuming the move holds today. Some of it was just luck that they are still short term so I was willing to hold and just sell my AMAT and KLAC to reduce my personal capex mutual fund." Move in NVLS was fo real. High volume move off a double bottom at the end of the month when portfolio managers were cleaning out their losers. KLIC and BRKS had similar moves. This created a seller's vacuum. Quite frankly, I never understood why NVLS traded that low. After the AMAT cc, their guidance seemed very reasonable. I think it should trade from $63 to $67 short term if the tide has turned as I think it has all things being equal. With that said, I sold 10% of my NVLS and AMAT positions today. Also a seller of ASYT, ASML and CYMI in smaller parts. Note that the SOX made a new high today and these stocks are still off their highs. But I expect the SOX will continue to rally over and above any rally in the market and that may drag these stocks up with it until the triple witch expiration. INTC and MU are on crack here. Look at all the analysts suck up to these stocks. SIA to report chip orders on September 9th which could add fuel to the fire. Profits are meant to be taken here IMO. LTCGs should be booked. The risk in this sector is an economic slowdown -- actual or perceived -- at some point in the next few months. You know, those drugs stocks are not rallying for no reason -- some are voting for an economic slowdown and that sector is made for such an environment. In a slowing economy, the market will not fully appreciate any semicapex capacity orders as it will assume today's capacity orders are tomorrow's push outs in the face of a slowing economy. In such an environment, I expect these stocks to continue a trading range pattern until and if Mr. G executes a Mr. Softie slowdown actual or perceived.