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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (11491)	9/1/1999 2:04:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

I sold 2nd position near 5. . .still holding original 1st position. . .to see what happens. . . 3rd position sell paid nearly my entire investment. . . so 2nd position sell is pure profit. . .and 1st position holdings are totally free. Hard to go wrong when you buy low and have the patience to wait it out. This was a textbook HOME thread play. . . just like the good ol' days when the market was buoyant and bulls were in control. Once again, I am liking the swing trade markets . . . wish I could say the same about the general markets. . .which are nearly impossible to predict in the nearest terms. Next week should be fun though. Rande Is

To: Bucky Katt who wrote (11491)	9/1/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: Kaliico	Respond to of 57584

Anyone care to comment on this negative assessment of next week... This guy , Michael Davey (is he respected?) just comes across as negative to me, yet i entertain all op/eds.. Wednesday September 1, 1999 Dow Big Top Oh, but you are still holding out hope, aren't you reader? Perhaps this market is on the right track after all. Today's NASDAQ reversal was just what the doctor ordered, yes? You're about to get clocked, I'm afraid. The Labor Day weekend is upon us , and though this week is notably strong, historically, I wouldn't count on holiday strength here. Low liquidity sometimes bites hard when the market is sick. And in any case, next week is notably ugly, historically. If I have warned you reader that I have been less than enthusiastic lately regarding stocks, now I am going to pound the table. I should like to stick my neck out (if I had a neck). The August bounce in the market was very sluggish, exhibiting weak breadth and light volume. The lows on August 10th held key support at the 200 day moving averages, but since then the Dow Industrials moved to new highs while the NASDAQ and S&P500 recovered only about two-thirds their declines. Despite the recent rally the number of new yearly lows far exceeds the number of new highs. This also occurred in the rallies to new Dow highs in the summers of 1987 and 1990. Ring a bell? This is a classic topping pattern that is developing. Pencil-wielding Technicians will be playing Hangman in the weeks to come--alerting you of the proverbial Head and Shoulder's top (those nagging flakes!). A painful extraction is now in the cards, should we break the August lows. If you are not inclined to go short (I admire such decency), then I recommend preserving capital, getting out of the way. Let someone else make the money here. If you are not so decent, I recommend getting short on this week's strength. The perverse will prevail, if only for a time. The longer term still looks reasonable, if not good, but traders listen up--that the Fed might not raise rates in October is not worth risking your life over. The market action is sick, rates are in an up trend, and Al has told ...he wants them higher. I have cut my long exposure significantly and have moved into a net short position. By Friday I will be aggressively short. Institutional selling of losing stocks gets particularly pronounced between now and the end of October (fiscal year end tax loss selling for institutions). The problem for these stocks is compounded as the public tax loss selling pours salt on the wounds, generally through November. I am focused on Retailers, Financial/Brokers and yes, the Internet's. The stocks that have already broken their offering prices or June lows are going to be the most vulnerable to selling by institutions this quarter.