To: Spytrdr who wrote (8292 ) 9/1/1999 8:46:00 PM From: ecommerceman Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 13953
From Stocktalk: SLUGGISH TRADING VOLUME: WHERE HAVE ALL THE TRADERS GONE? By Chirag N. Amin, M.D. Despite the much anticipated move by Fed chairman Alan Greenspan to raise rates by 0.25% at the last FOMC meeting, the stock market has continued to experience a large amount of volatility, with stock prices fluctuating in a seemingly directionless manner. Even though the Dow was hitting new record highs last week, this appeared to be short-lived, as additional words by Mr. Greenspan regarding the market being overvalued sent fears of further Fed-driven interest rate increases in the minds of many investors. In addition, despite the recent highs experienced in the Dow as well as the NASDAQ, the advance/decline line has continued to favor the declining stock issues, thus further contributing to the overall bearish sentiment of the market that we have seen as of late. Nevertheless, before giving in to the bearish sentiment on Wall Street, it is important to look more closely at the market indicators. One important technical observation that we have been seeing in the markets over the past couple of weeks is the extremely low level of trading volume on both the NYSE and NASDAQ markets. As a result, we have seen a large amount of volatility across the entire market, characterized by large market swings and fluctuating Internet stock prices during the trading day. In addition, we have also been seeing a divergence in directions of the stock indices, with days that show the Dow down and the NASDAQ up, and vice versa. What is the reason for the low trading volume? As unbelievable as it may seem, there recently has not been any significant news to move the stock market is any given direction. We are in between the 2nd and 3rd quarter earnings seasons, and, surprisingly, we haven't heard any earnings warnings from the large blue-chip companies in the technology and Internet sector. Furthermore, with the summer season winding down and the Labor Day holiday weekend quickly approaching, many individual investors as well as institutional investors have been on vacation, accounting for the thin trading volume on the major stock exchanges. So, based on all of this, how are we to anticipate the direction in which the market is heading? Fortunately, after Labor Day, many of the larger traders and institutional investors will return to the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Plus, with 3rd quarter company earnings just around the corner, we should see trading interest pick up, as many Wall Street analysts are expecting the 3rd quarter company earnings to be as strong, if not stronger, than the previous quarter. In addition, with many online brokers, such as E*Trade and Datek starting to offer after-hours trading to their customers, we will not only see more trading taking place, but we will also witness a renewed interest in this flat market. Therefore, I encourage all of you individual investors to hang in there, as the market seems to be well-poised for a very interesting last few months of 1999.