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To: Ilaine who wrote (59923)	9/1/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

CB, i agree that sentiment turns are not always bullish...an example would be the investors' intelligence poll, where the percentage of bullish advisors has been on a steady decline for a few weeks after hitting 12-year highs earlier this year. CNBC never tires to point out this decline and it's conventional, bullish, interpretation. they forget to mention however, that this poll ALWAYS tops out shortly before the market does, since not all investment advisors are complete idiots. when they see the things that are there for all to see, like e.g. the a/d line, they turn bearish, that's all there is to it. that's why i said i'm not sure what to make of the high p/c ratios...it may well be that the smart money is busy positioning itself for a big decline. or maybe fund managers are getting scared, and i wouldn't call that especially bullish. i remember that lots of index puts were bought just prior to the '87 crash and we have seen 13 year lows in the p/c ratios at the july highs and we may have some pain ahead of us to work off the excesses in bullishness recorded earlier this year.