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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23006)	9/1/1999 10:21:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

"You may want to do a little more research on what happens to earnings at various stages of the cycle" That is essentially the crux of the problem.Lets say that CYMI reports 10 cents in earning and a good outlook for the next quarter. A fund manager or individual investor will look at those earnings and say, "do I want to invest in CYMI that just reported 10 cents a share and a decent outlook, or do I go with COHU that just reported 59 cents a share. (or perhaps AMAT or LRCX) My point is that CYMI's earnings have to get a whole lot better faster in order to support the price. I know there are long term investors that take a different viewpoint, but we all know of stocks that got trashed for some whimsical reason. I'll give you an example. According to recent posters CYMI had a 95% market share for their product. Let's assume that at some point in the future CYMI's market share declines to 90%( still excellent by any measurement standards) I bet some guru comes out and downgrades the stock because they are losing market share. The outlook for the company hasn't changed significantly, earnings will still grow, but a selling panic will follow. Future projections are fine just as long as every thing world wise stays the same. But things never stay the same. Again, just my opinions, Jerome